In this episode of the Buckeye Weekly Podcast, Tom Orr and Tony Gerdeman discuss who should be ranked No. 1 right now in college football. Or, more specifically, why voters are still latched onto the Georgia Bulldogs?
The fellas ask what Georgia has done to deserve the top spot, while also mentioning that Ohio State has better wins and Michigan has been more dominant.
They also discuss Michigan’s latest blowout of an overmatched and unimpressive opponent. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy is also a topic of conversation. Is he the best player in the country right now? How will he stack up against Penn State? Tony and Tom discuss all of this and more.
You can find an automated (and unedited) transcript of this show below the video player.
Tony Gerdeman 0:02
Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Buckeye weekly podcast. I am Tony Gerdeman. Here has always with Tom Orr. Tom. How’s it going?
Tom Orr 0:12
Tony? It has been a contentious week on the internet between Ohio State people and Michigan people, even by the normally lofty standards of Ohio State Michigan, pn Pete Michigan people on the internet. So Tony, I feel like in this episode of the Buckeye weekly podcast, the Michigan Monday episode, I feel like we need to take a second and try and unite people. I’m a united, Tony, I want to bring people together, Tony. Why in the hell is Georgia ranked? Number one, I recognize that the AP poll is stupid and meaningless. What is the argument for ranking Georgia? Number one?
Tony Gerdeman 0:51
The argument for ranking Georgia number one. And this is these are what the voters think. In terms of the AP, I don’t know what the coaches take terms of the AP voters, they’re thinking, well, I put Georgia at one to start the season. And I don’t like being wrong. So I’m going to keep Georgia at number one, or else I’ll look wrong. And I don’t like looking wrong. So I’m going to keep them at number one. That’s it.
Tom Orr 1:17
It does feel like the case for ranking Georgia, number one and 2023 centers almost entirely around Georgia and 2021 in Georgia in 2022. Rather, famously, those are not yours in which the performance of a team is supposed to factor into their ranking in 2023. And again, it doesn’t matter at all. And I’m sure what the coaches are thinking is I’m going to screw up overtime strategy for some reason, because that seems to be what the coaches are always thinking this year. But I mean, I think the reason that this is a relevant question on this particular episode of this particular podcast is, I think there’s a particularly strong case to be made for ranking Michigan. Number one, if you look at just overall power ratings, a lot of the computer rankings, you know, Michigan has, I will say for the eighth straight week not played anyone yet. But boy, howdy has Michigan beaten the EverLiving crap out of all of the nobodies they have played. And at some point, beating the soul out of everyone you play, even if they are bad, does start to mean something. And I think we passed that point a week or two ago. And if you look at the power ratings, I’m just going to use the CELT Kelly for power rating Kelly Ford does the calculated risk podcast for us along with Tyler Shoemaker. He has two separate sets of ratings that he talks about on that show, one of the power ratings, which is just how much better Are you purely than the average big 10 or the average FBS team? So this is a purely predictive thing for looking it is not a resume metric. It’s just how good can you be expected to be Michigan number one in his rankings 27.7 Point better than the average FBS team. Ohio State number 220 7.2 points better than the average FBS team. Penn State three Oklahoma for Florida State five. Okay, totally. I would have no problem with Michigan being number one in the polls right now. In his most deserving rankings, which is a resume based ranking, looking back not predictive looking back at who have you beaten and how much have you beaten them by Ohio State is number one in that one. Florida State number two, Oklahoma three, Washington for Michigan falls all the way down at number eight in those because while they have beaten the souls out of everyone they have played, they have not played anyone. So they’re number eight in that one. So again, I would be fine. With Michigan being number one, I’d be fine. with Ohio State being number one, I’d be fine with Florida State being number one, if you want to do this as a resume thing. And you want to say look, hey, they’ve had Goodwin over Duke Goodwin over LSU earlier in the year, you want to make them number one, that’s fine. I just, I cannot for the life of me make a coherent argument for Georgia other than Well, exactly what you said I had the number one earlier and I don’t like to admit that I’m wrong.
Tony Gerdeman 3:53
Yep. Plus, it’s like, well, they’re gonna start playing ranked teams eventually. So you’ll see, you’ll see that I’m right. And the thing that I hate about the rankings, people who do the rankings when they’re trying to prove that they’re right, or they’re trying to predict how a team is going to finish up that it just becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And I get so annoyed at things like that. As annoying as I can get about something as meaningless as college football polls. But this information still goes somewhere, it still goes into the ether, where it is then drawn up to the roots of the college football playoff committee and like some of that gets on them and it’s hard for them to shake. Even though Tom, as we’ll talk about in the coming weeks for weeks on end. They throw out the rankings each and every week. And yeah, yeah. They always look the same.
Tom Orr 4:43
They sure do, don’t they? Yeah, that is that is next Tuesday on October 31. That will be the first college football playoff rankings reveal. We have not done any kind of official conversation because we are great at advanced planning but in previous years don’t know we don’t want to base as I said, we don’t Want to base this year’s rankings off of previous year’s performances, I don’t want to base this year’s editorial calendar off of previous year’s editorial calendars. But we do typically do a live show on Tuesday during those, those playoff rankings reveal. So we’ll probably be doing that next this time next week. And I think there is a particularly compelling case for when that happens. For Michigan to be number one, if you want to go by one set of metrics, based on the way that the committee has typically talked about the way they’ve reached those conversations, that decision, I’m expecting assuming Ohio State beats, you know, somebody may handle their business this weekend in Madison and beat Wisconsin, I’m expecting Ohio State or Florida State probably to be number one, just because they typically look at a resume based thing. And so I would assume it would align fairly closely with that. So you know, has built a million Ohio State beat Notre Dame on the road and beat Penn State at home. And so they’ve had the strongest case for Florida State, you know, the case I laid out earlier, one of them. But you know, I’m certainly expecting Michigan to be in the field before probably number three, I’m guessing to maybe I mean, we’ll find out next week. But you know, either way, you know, you can look at any of these metrics you want to and everything sort of says, Yeah, Ohio State, Michigan, both are both pretty good this year, and both probably gonna play a game of some significance. On the Saturday after Thanksgiving in Ann Arbor.
Tony Gerdeman 6:22
Yeah, and since they do play each other, I would be pretty surprised if they have Michigan, ranked ahead of Ohio State, because why our state, we don’t know where the teams are going to be ranked. When the rankings come out. Like right now, Ohio State has a win over number 10, Penn State and number 14, Notre Dame, we don’t know necessarily know where they will be in 10 days or whatever. But Michigan is not going to have anything that they play. They’re off this week than they have Purdue. Now. I will tell you, they are Michigan right now is to know against teams that are also receiving votes. Rutgers has received two votes UNLV has received a vote.
Tom Orr 7:09
Boy, if you had told me two months ago that the strength of a I mean, like those are two teams that are having good seasons. And I you know, I mean, I think that a lot of that I am not expecting records to be receiving votes for much longer. Record, his schedule was pretty back loaded in terms of the good teams are gonna play UNLV I mean, UNLV like Barry Odom has done a good good job that their bowl eligible. I think already for the first time in I heard someone say the year it was 2010 or two that I mean, it’s it has been a hot minute since UNLV. has been bowl eligible. And they’re bowl eligible on October, you know, on October 20, or whatever it was October 21. That is a good good job. So, yeah, I mean, you know, that’s not a win, that’s going to show up on the great wins, I’m not expecting UNLV to show up on the top 25 rankings of the first college football playoff rankings, nor am I expecting to see Rutgers there. But those are those are better wins than they looked like at the time. But they’re also, you know, it’s like trying to hang a real heavy picture on a real real small nail. Like that’s not going to that’s not going to support your college football playoff case. But you know, I mean, it’s, it’s something,
Tony Gerdeman 8:20
and we’ll definitely talk about the committee more and more. But I think when the committee looks at an eight, no Michigan, they’re gonna see the game control and dominance and all of that is there. But you also have to look and see, why is that there. And that’s where things start to fall apart for what I think would be Michigan’s argument and I think I think it will fall apart. And if especially if Ohio State goes and wins at Wisconsin, I will be based on the way we’ve seen the committee do things in the past, I like to reward those wins, at least initially before they start changing their narrative to whatever they want it to be. But out of the gate, you know, I would be surprised if out of the gate Ohio State isn’t at the top or as Michigan is above them. It all sorted stuff out. But it will definitely make me raise my eyebrow based on based on what exactly other than we don’t we don’t really watch scores. We don’t look at the final scores. You know, we don’t look at margin of victory. Well, you What are you looking at that if you’re ranking Michigan number one?
Tom Orr 9:23
Yeah. And I mean, let’s let’s just Tony preempt the conversation that happens in these comments on these videos every single week. Yes, Michigan has a very good football team. Yes, it is quite possible. Michigan is the very best football team in the entire United States of America in the year of our Lord 2023. Yes, it is entirely possible that Michigan will beat Ohio State this year. Yes, it is entirely possible that I’m expecting that there is a better than 5050 chance that Michigan is going to beat Ohio State this year. All of these things can be true if Michigan is ranked fourth or fifth in the college football playoff array, you know initial rankings, that really doesn’t matter at all it is going to be a function of hey, you played a bad non conference schedule and your conference scheduled quality opponents are real backloaded. And, you know, you can blame Michigan State for some of that because Michigan State was supposed to be at least a halfway decent team. And then and then your head coach did some stuff. And then and then you put Hitler on the scoreboard and then you scored zero points. And, you know, a lot of that had to do some of that. Anyway, Tony, there are points had to do with Michigan, there is some self inflicted stuff there too, with the rest of Michigan State’s here. And, you know, the schedule is what it is if Michigan had played UNLV at the beginning of the season, I don’t think we’d be having any of these conversations, but they opted not to do that. Or sorry, UCLA at the beginning of the season, they did play UNLV. If they played UCLA at the beginning of the season, I think this conversation is just like, well, they’re their conference schedules back loaded, but you know, at least they have that quality when out of conference. You don’t so we’re having the exact same conversation every week. But again, yes, Michigan is very good. Yes. It’s there’s a good chance that Michigan is the best team in the country. Yes, there’s a good chance that Michigan beats Ohio State this this year, for as people have pointed out in the comments, I was not aware of this, Tony, that would be the third straight year that that happened. If it does happen. I did pull up a stat a chart on opponent offense adjusted EPA per play and opponent adjusted EPA per play on defense. And the chart basically is the further you are to the top and to the right, the better you are. And the two teams that are in the top. You know, they haven’t kind of broken down by sectors and the only two teams in the top sector are Ohio State and Michigan. And Ohio State’s defense is a little better than Michigan’s and Michigan’s offense is, you know, substantially nuts. It’s not incredibly but you know, significantly better than Ohio State’s. So, you know, this, this feels like, Hey, these are two pretty good teams and no matter how you want to, how do you want to slice it? There are two teams that have kind of gotten there on a little bit of a different way Michigan’s been born Dhaba dominant Ohio State’s played better opposition and still been undefeated. But yeah, I think this is going to be a pretty darn good football game. Coming up Thanksgiving weekend.
Tony Gerdeman 12:07
NBA fans The wait is over basketball is back and DraftKings. sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NBA is celebrating with an unbeatable offer. New customers can score $200 instantly at bonus bets for throwing down $5 on the NBA when you lose it doesn’t matter you’ll start the season with an instant dub and with DraftKings parlays everyone’s got a shout out even bigger basketball wins string together multiple bets from the same game rebuild your partly across multiple games for a shot of making your payday even sweeter. Basketball is more fun when you’re in on the action download the DraftKings sportsbook app now and use code huddle up new customers can get $200 and bonus bets instantly for betting just $5 Only on DraftKings sportsbook with code huddle at the crown is yours gambling problem call one 800 gambler or visit www dot 100 Gabler dotnet and New York call 8778 Hope and why are taxed hope and why in Connecticut help is available for Problem Gambling Call 887897777 or visit CCP g.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort Kansas licensee partner Golden Nugget Lake Charles Louisiana 21 over age varies by jurisdiction Boyd in Ontario are just about to expire 168 hours after issuance sports book about draftkings.com/basketball. So the sports book.draftkings.com/basketball terms for eligibility deposit restrictions terms and responsible gaming resources. Talking about the Michigan defensive they threw a shout out 49 Nothing against actually outscored Michigan State the defense did a seven nothing in that one thanks to make Sandra still 72 yard pick sixes second pick sixth of the year but it I think last week I went and just detailed in terms of total offense where Michigan’s opponents ranked just to give people an idea that when we say they haven’t played an offense yet to express and show and prove that it wasn’t that that they haven’t. And people are like you know, well you don’t your total offense is not a great stat. It’s not a great stat I’m not. I’m just using it to show informationally where the teams that they have ranked where they where they have played where they are ranked. I’m not saying one team is better than another, you know, like people like to use analytics to do that. This isn’t I’m not saying any of these teams are better than Michigan, for instance. But when I did put that number out people like Well, you got to take Michigan’s performance out of it. And because, you know, clearly Michigan has turned what would normally be a tremendous offense every week other than the one we could play against Michigan into a bad offense. And so what I did is I did what I did go through and looked at all eight of their opponents took out Michigan’s performance against that and look where they would rank offensively in terms of total offense. Without that Michigan performance, East Carolina will be 128th in the nation. UNLV will be 19 You know, so there you go. Bowling Green would be 118 rutgers would be 100. And third in the nation, Nebraska would be 106 than the nation. Minnesota 113. Indiana tied at 113th. And Michigan State would be 95th. And so these without Michigan having anything to do with these games with With those opponents, that’s where those teams would rank offensively in total offense nationally. So when we talk about how they have not played anybody, this is one of the things we’re talking about. But also, they have been fantastic on defense. They’re doing what a fantastic defense would do against eight, seven terrible offenses, and one overmatched offense. So they have done exceedingly well. They’re giving up less than a touchdown per game. They have given up time, I believe, five touchdowns this season. And I went through our scfv stats.com and looked at the number of touchdowns given up through the first few months of the season. Going back to 2009, I can’t find another team that has given up only five touchdowns in the first two months of the season. So Michigan’s Defense is doing something that nobody has done in the past 15 years. I don’t think it’s entirely because this is the best college football defense of the last 15 years. In fact, I know it is not. But where is it? Top 10 is a top 20 I don’t know. But it is not so much better than every other defense that it has done, it is capable of doing something that nobody else has done without a ton of help from the offensive that they have played. Yeah, and
Tom Orr 16:14
that’s, you know, there’s another way to measure this that I’ve talked about on this show in the past, and that’s the college football nerds.com, they have a metric that I really like and they look at a yards per play basis on rushing yards per play basis on passing, what the opponents average and what you held your opponents to as compared to their average against all the other teams that that that team has played and Michigan in terms of rushing defense has held their opponents to 26% less a fewer yards per carry on the ground than opponents that ranks 15th in the country in that metric, Ohio State to 12. So very similar, both have been very good against opposing rushing attacks. Michigan against the pass, they are 11th in yards per attempt against but they are only 3% better because those opponents have been so bad passing the ball, they’re only 3% better than the the average opponent for their opponents. So that puts in 50th in the country, Ohio State is second in the nation 34% better than you know, the then opponent averages in other games. Some of that has to do with just exactly how bad opponent other you know, their opposing teams have been. Because if you’re throwing four or five yards per attempt or whatever, against everyone, it is very hard to be substantially better than that you were going to Michigan State was a just an absolute dumpster fire on offense on Saturday night. And they threw for 4.6 yards per attempt. I mean, there was a certain unless you weren’t playing literally Iowa, there is a lower bound for how low those numbers can go. So you know, I don’t think Michigan is really the 50th best pass defense in the nation. But this does kind of go to the point that you really have not gotten tested. And we talked about this last week in the lead up to the Ohio State Penn State game, Penn State’s defense was, you know, by the top line numbers, the number one defense in the country. And they did they played well against Ohio State. But also they weren’t the number one defense in the country against Ohio State. And, you know, Ohio State had, you know, put up 20 points, but had a couple other times they were in the red zone and you know, could have kicked the field goal. could have put us more points than that. So, you know, Michigan is very, very good. Very, very good, especially on defense. But Tony, I think also we got to talk about JJ McCarthy because he feels like he’s kind of taking the next step.
Tony Gerdeman 18:29
Yeah, he is to me, the best player in the country right now in terms of quarterbacks. And if you want to argue Marvin Harrison, we can do that. Because at this point, it is looking like the Heisman Trophy is going to be won November 25. in Ann Arbor, depending on who shows up more between McCarthy and Harrison, but right now, he is playing as good as we’ve ever seen. Now, we could talk about how the defenses, some of the conversation, they’re not really playing any top opponents. But the level of play that he’s at right now. I would I can’t wait to see what Penn State does with it because we saw a Penn State defense that Marvin Harrison was getting open other receivers were getting open. I don’t think it was a shutdown defense. But they were they caused issues. So I’m interested to see how what JJ McCarthy can do with that with his capability with the way that he can keep plays alive with the way they used to and they’re both in their tight ends. They really at least a 12 personnel package with AJ barter and cost in Loveland in this one barter I think 99 yards receiving in Loveland was somewhere around 70 Something with two touchdowns and three touchdowns total between the both of them. But he is in such control and the amount of confidence they has that led to his one sack like an eight yard loss because he figures I can just get out of anything. So like you can do that against Michigan State. Can you do that against Penn State? Does that get you into trouble? Can you do that against Ohio State does that get you into trouble but Right now, I believe he might now be the Heisman front runner in terms of the betting sites and the numbers. overall numbers may not be what you have come to expect, but he’s people are going to now be watching him and they’re going to see plays and he does seem to have Heisman moments each week and he creates plays and he’s a playmaker and if everybody else is coming down, and JJ McCarthy is going up like this is no longer Caleb Williams trophy to win anymore.
Tom Orr 20:29
Well, no, it is certainly not kale blames trophy when I you know, Caleb Williams and Drake may both took pretty significant shot their chances I think, over the weekend. McCarthy is the favorite right now. Plus 240. Michael Penix second it plus 300 Jaden Daniels, 30 plus 375. Then a pretty big drop off to Jordan, Travis, Dylan, Gabriel Beau Nicks. And Marvin Harrison Marvin Harrison plus 2000, the only non quarterback on that list. So I mean, it’s when you look at McCarthy, again, like you said, the numbers are not incredible. He’s not putting up Andre ware numbers or anything like that. He’s not putting up CJ Stroud numbers, but he’s putting up you know, he has been very, very efficient. He’s been very, very effective. He makes plays with his legs when he needs to, he really didn’t need to against Michigan State that was, you know, kind of one of those things where, you know, he has he has made plays when he needed to in Michigan State that game was over so early that it was kind of like well, there’s no reason for him to take any shots there. But you know, he is just he has made it work with a whole bunch of different guys and what I think is most impressive to me about it Tony is Michigan has really not run the Bowl this year. They have not been it which is bizarre to say. They blink quorum 15, carries 59 yards, 3.9 yards per carry. Donovan Edwards six carries 14 yards 2.3 yards per grade Donovan average cannot get it going right now. Like Quorum has been, you know, he feels like he has won one yard touchdown, every game and you know, finishes with a stat line that’s otherwise really unspectacular. And, you know, maybe that gets going at some point, but it just it feels like that the run game just hasn’t been there. So a lot of it has been on McCarthy. And even you know, this was a game where you didn’t have Cornelius Johnson. Three catches 26 yards long of 11. Donovan Edwards three catches 23 yards. Roman Wilson who has been one of his top targets, two catches 50 yards. But just there was not anything out of the out of the wide receivers really that was impressive. But as you said 12 catches for 178 yards and three touchdowns for the tight ends you know and it’s it’s not just the tight ends. You know, Colson Loveland has had a big year but there has been there have been you know, the Roman Anthony game there has been Cornelius Johnson has a big day there has been Colston Loveland has a big day. But the one thing that’s kind of tying this all together is JJ McCarthy. And it’s just other than the Bowling Green game, which is just looks like an incredible outlier right now where he threw three picks and he hasn’t, I don’t think thrown a pic. And other than that all season, he’s just been very efficient, very effective, kept them moving down the field. And, you know, I mean, they have not played incredible opposition, but you know, they are in the same stat that I was taught citing for the defense, you know, relative performance compared to what your opponents typically give up in the yards per attempt, Michigan 10 points, one six yards per attempt. They are 47% Better 47% Better in yards per attempt than opponent averages at fourth in the country. Air Force number one 135% better. So if you can run dirt running the triple option, you will, you’ll be better at Tony. There are only other than Air Force there’s only two teams better than Michigan in terms of relative performance in terms of opponent yards per averages. One is LSU at 50%. Which team is number three at 48% 1% Better
Tony Gerdeman 23:52
than Michigan is at The Ohio State University.
Tom Orr 23:55
It is the Ohio State University Tony I’m starting to think that game after Thanksgiving might be a pretty good one.
Tony Gerdeman 24:05
Watching JJ McCarthy, I went and charted his in the pocket passes and it’s outside the pocket passes. In the pocket he was 16 and 22. For 204 yards and two touchdowns outside he was five of five for 83 yards and two scores. He’s just incredibly deadly once whether it’s a designed rollout, or it’s even worse for the opposition. It’s a scramble, because not only is he great at it, but his receivers are really great at it as well. And that’s tight ends, that’s running backs, that’s receivers like everybody understands where they need to be and there’s a high level of communication there once things start to break down so continues to be impressive. He was 20 or 26 in the first half for 276 yards, and then through one pass and the second half in the third quarter, which was a touchdown and that that passed didn’t come until like midway through the third quarter because Michigan had Michigan State got the ball first through a pick six and get the ball again and drove a little bit but one of the craziest stats of the season right now, JJ McCarthy is fourth on his team and number of fourth quarter passes.
Tom Orr 25:15
That is, of all the different ways we’ve said Michigan has not played a lot of close games, because they haven’t played a lot of good opponents. Boy. That’s pretty remarkable. And and, you know, I mean, anytime you have that, I think everyone sort of goes, Well, are they going to be able, you know, are they gonna be ready for a four quarter game? And I, you know, I think they’re gonna play a four quarter game against Penn State to at least some degree when they have to go to State College and a couple of weeks. But you know, that they’re certainly rested. And, you know, we talked earlier about Michigan, not, you know, the running backs not really having a big a big year. Michigan last year, the running backs by quorum had an enormous year to the point where he was in Heisman contention. But then all of those 25 and 28 and 30 carry games added up, and he ended up getting banged up and, you know, got got hurt against Illinois and then barely played against Ohio State. You know, he may not be having a huge year, but he’s gonna be fresh. And that’s true for pretty much everyone on this Michigan team. They are pretty healthy because they haven’t had to go four quarters and Jim Harbaugh has been rotating so many guys through you just you’ve got guys who are playing quarterback and like who, like that’s they had they had the it was Jaden Denna goal, had two passes two for two for seven yards. And I’m like, why who? That’s not That’s not Davis Warren that’s not Jack Tuttle. I mean, you’re you are they are really getting down the depth chart. And that was a road game against an in state, you know, an in state rival. So. And he’s doing that all over the place there. They’ve rotated down the defense they’ve rotated in in the running back room. And that has been a very intentional thing for that for them this year. And I don’t know if that’s just trying to get everyone involved or just trying to keep everyone fresh and healthy and engaged. Whatever it is, I mean, whatever it is, it’s working.
Tony Gerdeman 27:05
I do wonder what happens the first time they have their backs against the wall, because the last time they had to happen, they lost a TCU. So like, coaches like to have that bit of experience that adversity, and there’s been absolutely zero adversity for this team so far. And so you don’t necessarily know how they’re going to handle it until they get there. They may handle it just fine. But I bet he would have Jim Harbaugh would have liked to have known beforehand be like have because we’ve seen it in the past. They struck the one possession game against Rutgers or Nebraska or Maryland, where it just you have that experience. And so far this year, their experience has been well, it’s one score game going into halftime, and now we’re going to score four straight touchdowns. there’s really been no adversity. So it’s just something to watch. Now the schedule, as you said, it’s very, very back loaded. It’s it’s two teams basically. And I think both of those teams can provide some adversity or should provide some adversity and we’ll see what they do with it. Now the back to the running game. Only one of Blake quorums carries on only one of his 15 carries went over five yards that was he had a 17 yarder. But in terms of like the success rate, he had seven straight successful runs. And like four of them were five yards it’s like boom right row 5555. So like nine of his 15 yard, none of his 15 carries were hit the success rate number were successful. Three of six of Donovan Edwards were and he again, there’s no good numbers coming from Donovan Edwards this season. But I was just surprised by that number. And now the passing that the receiving aspect of his game is still a significant weapon and they will continue to use them but the running game it’s similar to Ohio State’s running game and that it’s you’re still going to run it. It’s not as effective as you would like Ohio State can get by because they have Marvin Harrison. Michigan could get bad because if JJ McCarthy and what happens if you take one of those away if you can. Clearly I think a receiver is easier to take away than a quarterback but they’re able to overcome the shortcomings and at this point in the season you are what you are now with Michigan they are what they are Ohio State being what they are. I’ve dealt with injuries at running back. I wouldn’t characterize the kolel Mullings injury as as significant as what Ohio State is dealing with with their running backs. But I think I’m done waiting for Michigan to be able to run the ball. I think this is what they are unless JJ McCarthy gets even more involved with it and hit some big ones. And if if play quorum doesn’t hit the big one, this is pretty much what they’re going to be like 120 yards and three yards, maybe four yards of carrying that might be good enough for now. But shoot, it might be good enough to win at all because I don’t think they’re already great teams this year.
Tom Orr 30:06
Yeah, I’m interested to see what that rushing offense looks like when they play at Penn State in a few weeks. Because, you know, I, I look at McCarthy’s number of carries and I recognize it last week we talked about the fact that he was running the ball too much and taking too many hits. They didn’t run him this week, and that’s fine. And that’s, you know, probably smart. I think you might see the old Urban Meyer quarterback run usage thing going because I think they’re gonna feel like they’re gonna have to run the ball at some against Penn State. And if you’re not able to generate a ton, just with quorum and Edwards, you might need to work McCarthy Morin today came in Urban Meyer for the Michigan folks who might not remember this particularly well. When JT Barrett was Ohio State’s quarterback for example, JT Barrett would have three carries against Rutgers and he’d have two carriers against Bowling Green, and then they play Penn State and he’d have 18 carriers I’m not expecting JT JJ McCarthy to have 18 carriers against Penn State but if JJ McCarthy went from three carriers against Michigan State to 10 carries against Penn State or nine carries against Penn State I don’t think that would surprise me at all. And if he’s able to present that plus one in the run game, maybe that open some things up for for quorum and Edwards you know, inside maybe that opens things up more just for you know, get get him out on the edge and just you know, hit hit someone downfield as as defenders kind of suck up to stop him in the run game. It feels like you’re gonna see more JJ McCarthy running. And then it’s just a matter you know, this was the case with JT Barrett to just, just stay healthy. Don’t don’t get that you get your you get your butt out of balance. You get your butt down on the ground and you slide don’t take that big hit. Because it feels like you know, the one really obvious thing that could derail this whole Michigan season is if JJ McCarthy gets hurt. You know, no disrespect to Jack Tuttle. But, you know, I’m not gonna lie. I have not watched a lot of Jack Tuttle because Jack Tuttle was kind of a human victory cigar where you know, as soon as Jack Tuttle’s in the game, okay, the meaningful portion of this game has been been is over. I don’t expect Jack Tuttle to light anyone up in the air. So if Jujuba Karthik gets hurt, I think that’s the one thing that could really be a big, big problem for Michigan. But I also expect them to keep him as safe as they possibly can. And I’m sure it has been communicated to him to get out of bounds and to get down and to not take any unnecessary hits, even when they do probably need him to run more against teams like Penn State.
Tony Gerdeman 32:38
I have been shouting all season long that Michigan is going to lose at Penn State. And after getting a good firsthand look at Penn State over the past week, I would like to amend my shouting, to I think Michigan is going to beat Penn State and here are a number of reasons why I don’t think Penn State’s going to be able to run on Michigan. I expect them to get after drew Alor quite a bit in the pass game. I don’t expect you to be able to make them pay for some mistakes in coverage. Because until I see that happen, I’m going to assume it well. And the passes that come accord missed that we’re open to receivers. This past week. I expect JJ McCarthy to head now he does. He doesn’t have Ohio State’s receivers. James McCarthy doesn’t. But from what I saw from Penn State secondary, they should still be okay. And also the coverage we saw Kate Stover have a big game. Cost in Loveland is really, really good. And if you’re gonna focus on Him, AJ Barnard just put up 99 yards on Michigan State, not that he’s going to do that every single week. But he’s a solid number two big 10 tight tight end and has been for a number of years. And so I feel like we’re Ohio State failed to, to pound it in I think Michigan State or Michigan will. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s, you know, Ohio State probably should have won like 30 to seven not letting that last one get in and then also converting them to the missed field goal. And that touchdown at the two yard line. So I could see something, you know, 2710, something like that. And my, my thoughts on Penn State have really kind of I don’t have high expectations for them in that game, but it is life on the road in the big 10 at Penn State and I assume that’s a big news. I don’t even know what the situation on that one is. But Jim Harbaugh has not had the best success on the road other than the last two years where he’s had all of this success on the road and so we’ll see what kind of advanced scouting they have done and go from there.
Tom Orr 34:48
The Penn State Michigan game is at noon in Happy Valley so that’s, you know, that’s a nice little bonus for Michigan to not have to play at night there. That you know, I think Penn State I’m with you. I’ve watched Penn State in person and kind of went, Oh, well. Turns out they have not played great opposition so far. And, you know, theoretically, it’s possible that that could happen to Michigan to the first time they they really get tested. But it doesn’t feel like that’s probably going to be the case. Again, like I said earlier, you can play crappy opposition for a while and I kind of go Yeah, okay, I’ll withhold judgment until you play someone real like if you’re doing too crappy opposition, but Michigan has been doing a crappy opposition. At some point it starts meaning something. It’s like Florida State back in the day in the ACC when they would just murder everyone. And it was like, Well, eventually you win enough 30 Point games against lousy conference opposition that it starts to really, you know, be a pretty good indication that yes, you are in fact legit. And it feels like we’ve crossed that line with Michigan. But yeah, we’ll see. We’ll see what it looks like in Happy Valley in a couple of weeks. But yeah, I’m with you. The Drew eller performance in person, the lack of explosive running plays in person, the lack of wide receiver talent, did nothing there said this is a team that is going to be the first one to get to the end goal against the Michigan defense all year.
Tony Gerdeman 36:12
That is still that is still we’re still waiting for an add goal situation against the Michigan defense. I would have missed that if it had happened in any of the fourth quarters this season, because I haven’t seen them one of them. But apparently that is still the case. So I think that will do it. For this episode. I want to thank you all for joining us. As always, we invite you to find us at Buckeye have a.com If you’re not yet a member, joined up, see how things go. And over there plenty of recruiting stuff coming down the pike because of the huge Penn State visit lots of recruits chiming in with their thoughts and what they saw. And of course plenty of behind the scenes stuff talking about the team and the upcoming schedule and things like that. So if you haven’t yet joined us see what you think of it of course find us at youtube.com/bucket huddle hit the bell to be notified whenever we go live graded thumbs up on this one. Subscribe if you haven’t. And of course if you’re listening on any podcast platform, a five star rating and review is always appreciated. So with that, I want to thank you all for tuning in and we will talk to you guys later.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai