Michigan Monday: The Rich Man’s Iowa

The Michigan Wolverines opened their 2024 season with a 30-10 win over Fresno State on Saturday, and in so doing, seemingly confirmed many preconceived notions about both their offense and defense.

This being just one week in, confirmation bias is a very definite possibility, but probably not to the point where we’re going to see a vastly different Wolverine offense or defense throughout this season. Based on the personnel and experience, they are what they are. There will be growth on offense, but it will likely be limited. The growth on defense won’t have those same limitations.

No team is a finished work of art by week one, but the outlines tend to give away what that finished piece will look like.

When Michigan Was On Offense

After months of expecting redshirt sophomore Alex Orji to be Michigan’s starting quarterback, followed by months of speculation that seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle could make the fall camp competition interesting, the Wolverines instead went with fourth-year junior Davis Warren.

Warren walked on to the Michigan football team in 2021 following a high school career where he handled a leukemia diagnosis that cost him games, and also lost his entire senior season due to a COVID cancelation. Despite the setbacks and comeups, Warren arrived at Michigan as a true freshman and was eventually named Scout Team Player of the Year on offense. It wasn’t too long before he was eventually put on scholarship.

Saturday night was his first career start and his most extensive playing time. He completed 15-of-25 passes for 118 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked once.

A Michigan passing game that averages 4.5 yards per attempt like this one did is not going to get the job done. A passing attack where the long gain is just 20 yards is also not going to get the job done.

Warren didn’t stretch the field much. One downfield pass was intercepted because it was underthrown. Another was thrown into double coverage and incomplete. There’s really no point in charting passing depth just yet because we all know it’s very, very short.

Warren targeted Michigan’s wide receivers 14 times. The Wolverines gained just 34 yards in those 14 targets. That’s not just abysmal, it’s also concerning.

The question right now is whether the passing game is being held back by Warren or his receivers, and the answer is that there are no innocents here. Yes, again, this is week one, but also Michigan has had 25 practices to look better than this.

Warren wasn’t bad, and he looked quite comfortable in the pocket, there was just nothing dynamic about the passing attack.

There are likely just two individuals in the passing game that truly concern defensive coaches. One is tight end Colston Loveland and the other is running back Donovan Edwards.

Colston is tremendous. We all know this. He’s as good a route runner as you’ll find. He lined up out wide, in the slot, and at tight end. He can do whatever you need, but he can’t do it all. And he needs help.

Loveland caught eight passes for 87 yards with one touchdown. Your top playmaker in the passing game only gave you 11 yards a catch. Nearly half of his yards came after the catch, so even when he gets the ball, he’s being asked to do most of the work.

There is no stretching of the field right now. That will change for a number of different reasons. Mostly because it has to, and also because Davis Warren is only going to get more comfortable.

But how much more effective will it be? Because it doesn’t matter how often they throw downfield if defenses aren’t made to pay. The effectiveness of the passing game is going to have a sizable impact on the running game, and right now, there doesn’t appear to be much reason for a defense to take its focus away from the run.

It seems clear that Alex Orji is not going to be utilized much in the passing game. He has completed just two of three passes in his career now, and the lone incompletion is the only pass he has thrown beyond the line of scrimmage. But he can be a big help to the running game. He rushed for 32 yards on five carries and looked perfectly comfortable doing that.

The threat to pass will always be there but it’s best for a defense to expect a run when he’s in the game.

Which brings us to the part of the show where we once again discuss Donovan Edwards’ lack of production.

Michigan rushed for 148 yards on 34 attempts, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Edwards carried the ball 11 times for 27 yards. Kalel Mullings led the team with 92 yards on 15 carries. He essentially sealed the victory for the Wolverines late in the fourth quarter when Fresno State cut the lead to 16-10. On the ensuing drive, Mullings had carries of 21, 15, and 6 yards, which led to an 18-yard touchdown pass from Warren to Loveland to make it 23-10 with just under six minutes left in the game.

But back to Edwards, because this is not a new thing. Looking over his three-plus years at Michigan, he has carried the ball at least five times in 25 games. In 14 of those games, he’s averaged under five yards per carry. In 12 of those games, he’s been under four yards per carry. Edwards has more games of averaging under three yards per carry than over six yards per carry.

For his career, he averages 5.5 yards per carry. He has only hit that mark in eight of the 25 games with at least five rush attempts.

Edwards has rushed for 1,689 yards on 305 career rushing attempts. Nearly one-fifth of his yards — 19.4% — has come on just five carries. That’s 1.6% of his carries doing 19.4% of the work.

Nearly 10% of his yards have come from just the two long runs in the win over Ohio State in 2022.

So I say all that to say this: Michigan needs a consistent option in the running game this season and Edwards has never shown that he can be that guy. He can hit some homeruns, but his on-base percentage isn’t going to be much different than his batting average.

The NBC broadcast called Kalel Mullings the change-of-pace back, which is very true, but not how it has ever been meant.

When you look at Mullings’ carry-by-carry totals, it looks like a Hollywood phone number: 5-5-5… so on and so forth. There’s just more consistency with Mullings. This offense needs to stay on schedule, and a five-yard pace will do that for you.

Mullings was much more efficient than Edwards this week. I don’t know if there’s any reason to expect that to change. Edwards will have better games, but this kind of game will always be the baseline.

Meanwhile, to make matters more difficult for both Edwards and Mullings, the offensive line is a work in progress — and some of the parts may take a few weeks to ship.

They are clearly still trying to figure out their top five. Ohio State is going through the same thing right now.

Michigan’s situation at center is a concern after week one. Dominick Guidice got the start but Greg Crippen also played. Guidice had some rough moments, but this was a learning experience for both players. Crippen had always been the leader in the clubhouse for the job based on preseason and spring speculation, so this was an interesting move that is still being solidified.

When Michigan Was On Defense

There has already been way too much time spent on the offense, but there were a lot of things to say. Defensively, not as much, so we’ll try to speed through this.

First off, I always love how many guys see the field on defense for Michigan. They were playing two entire sets of defensive backs throughout the game. That’s a level of trust by the coaches that produces results every week moving forward.

Fresno State didn’t get much done in this game. They were held to nine yards rushing on 22 attempts. Quarterback Mikey Keane completed 22-of-36 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He was sacked three times.

Defensive end Josiah Stewart got him twice as part of his three tackles for loss on the day. Rayshaun Benny — the team’s No. 3 defensive tackle — got the third.

Stewart made plays all over the place in this one, even dropping into coverage to make tackles. He and Derrick Moore didn’t have (m)any starts at Michigan prior to this game but both have played a ton in this defense as regular members of the rotation last year.

Defensive tackle Mason Graham is still Mason Graham. He never stops moving. He has Restless Leg Syndrome of the entire body. Graham treats the line of scrimmage like an escape room but he never bothers looking for clues.

“Mason, you have to open the envelopes and read the clues?”

“No I don’t.”

He just chooses a wall and gets out however he wants.

I thought linebacker Ernest Hausman was physical. Maryland linebacker transfer Jaishawn Barham was pretty quiet, but I don’t expect that to be the case each week.

I think this may have been Will Johnson’s worst game as a Wolverine (a very high bar) and he still nearly had three interceptions. He was very aggressive on the day, nearly picking a pair of passes early on, but he closed the game by triggering on a wide screen outside, intercepting the pass, and then taking it 86 yards for the score. That essentially ended the game, giving Michigan a 30-10 lead with under four minutes to play.

Johnson did give up some completions and lost his man a couple of times down field. There are no reasons for concern but it was still notable because the expectations are so high. Cornerbacks are going to get beaten. That’s the nature of the position. There were likely portions of this game that are just going to piss him off and make him better.

I still think it was crazy of Keane to target Johnson so often in the passing game. There’s confidence and then there’s stupidity. Somewhere in the middle resides the Yolo bone, and Keane’s is rather prominent.

I will be interested to see how the secondary eventually shakes out. The front six is set. I won’t be surprised to see three cornerbacks continue to rotate, but will a full-time safety emerge next to Makari Paige?

Zeke Berry got the start at nickel in place of the great Mike Sainristil. He came away with an interception on a tipped pass, but he has some very big shoes to fill.

The secondary has some questions, but the answers might be there as well.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale might want to be careful with the blitzing this weekend against Texas, however.

The Special Teams

Well, it must be a year that ends in a number because Michigan went out and got themselves another damn good kicker. Arkansas State transfer Dominic Zvada made all three of his field goal attempts, connecting from 45, 53, and 55 yards.

In his two years at Arkansas State, Zvada made 34 of his 40 career attempts. He certainly looked like a weapon in this one. It will be interesting to see if he becomes too relied upon and Michigan’s offense starts to be okay with settling rather than remaining aggressive on later downs.

Punter Tommy Doman did not have his best day. He averaged 40.8 yards per kick and only put one inside the 20-yard line. The Wolverines gave up nothing of significance in the return game.

Semaj Morgan averaged 16 yards on his two punt returns, taking one 22 yards. There might be something here for Michigan to exploit. Kalel Mullings as the kickoff returner is interesting because he does not look like your typical return guy. He averaged 25 yards on his three returns.

What Does It All Mean

It means that this offense needs to get a lot better between now and Texas, and much better between now and USC.

I don’t think we’re making too much of the limitations on offense. The good news for Michigan is that everybody will be better this week than last week. The bad news is that nothing we’ve seen to this point suggests that they’ll be as good as they need to be.

If the Wolverines are going to beat Texas at home this week, the Michigan defense will need to give the offense short fields. Or, even better, no fields.

The Wolverines only had one drive of longer than 50 yards against Fresno State. They had five total scoring drives, with the second-longest being just 47 yards.

It also means that this is just game one.

Fresno State had been preparing for this game for months. No other opponent will have that kind of advantage. Even for the teams that will be scouting Michigan throughout the season, they’ll have their plates full with the season itself.

Still, we saw legit reasons to be concerned about the Michigan offense. They need to find more playmakers. Then they need to be able to put them in positions to succeed.

The latter won’t be easy, and the former may actually be impossible.

The Road To The Game

Aug. 31 – Michigan 30 – Fresno State 10 (1-0)
Sept. 7 – Texas
Sept. 14 – Arkansas State
Sept. 21 – USC
Sept. 28 – Minnesota
Oct. 5 – at Washington
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – at Illinois
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State

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