Michigan’s winning streak ended at 16 games as the Texas Longhorns came into Michigan Stadium on Saturday and handed the Wolverines a 31-12 defeat that was never really close but also was never all that easy.
Michigan made Texas work, but also never actually put them out of work. The Longhorns were fine doing things the hard way, and it showed throughout the first three quarters of the game when they were still putting in the effort.
The fourth quarter of the game was just Texas trying to let the clock burn.
Some might say that Michigan was exposed in this game, but the Fresno State opener gave everyone a pretty good idea of what was going to happen against Texas. If this outcome surprised you, you haven’t been paying attention.
When Michigan Was On Offense
Michigan’s offense produced 13 first downs in this game, with seven of those coming over the course of the first three quarters. The Wolverines then posted 132 of their 284 total yards in the fourth quarter when the Longhorns were only interested in keeping things in front of them and letting the clock do its job.
Michigan’s first drive went three-and-out, so they came back on their second drive with a flea-flicker and some misdirection to try and get some chunk yards. The flea-flicker went just 22 yards. The misdirection play was a rush by Donovan Edwards that should have gone 38 yards for a touchdown but only went 12 yards because the one guy who could get a hand on Edwards did. The drive ended in a 37-yard field goal to make it 7-3 Texas.
It felt at the time like an offense that had to pull out all the stops to try and get points. It was too early to call it “desperation” but the concern was clear.
Most of the focus here is going to be on the first three quarters because that’s when Texas was actively trying to distance themselves from the Wolverines. But it’s also not like including UM’s fourth quarter makes this a positive performance.
Quarterback Davis Warren got the start again for Michigan. Backup Alex Orji was very limited in his snaps this week, which was a surprise given the relative effectiveness he has created with the running game.
For the game, Warren completed 22-of-33 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was only sacked once. Those numbers aren’t terrible. It’s the same completion percentage that Quinn Ewers had on the other side of the ball.
But that’s where the similarities end.
Warren was 9-of-16 passing for 73 yards with two interceptions in the first three quarters. He threw seven passes more than five yards downfield in that span and completed just two of them. One was the flea-flicker. The other was a scramble drill where he found tight end Colston Loveland in a bit of traffic for a 24-yard gain on the sideline.
Other than the trick play and the broken play, Warren was 0-for-5 through three quarters on passes of more than five yards downfield. And two of the passes were intercepted. He completed 7-of-9 passes that went five or fewer yards downfield. Two of those passes went one yard past the line of scrimmage. Three of them were behind the line of scrimmage.
Given his story, it is impossible to root against Davis Warren, but he can only do so much. His play and skill set is reminiscent to a Cade McNamara or Brandon Peters or John O’Korn or any other quarterback that frustrated Michigan fans during the Jim Harbaugh era.
Good enough to beat Minnesota or Rutgers, but not so good that the Wolverines can’t lose to them as well.
And not an NFL quarterback.
Warren needs help but there isn’t any to be found. Tight end Colston Loveland is great, but if your only consistent playmaker is a tight end, your offense becomes much easier to shut down. Loveland caught eight passes for 70 yards, but inexplicably knocked the football out of his own arms forcing a fumble on himself, leading to a Texas touchdown drive to cap the first half.
Loveland has been targeted 20 times this season and produced 157 yards. That’s not great. He’s averaging 9.8 yards per catch so far this season after posting 14.4 last year. The sample size is small right now and the schedule will get easier, but the purpose of Michigan Monday isn’t to look at how much easier things will get for the Wolverines.
The Michigan wide receivers were again quiet and nothing we’ve seen to this point gives us a reason to think that that’s going to change against top competition.
Semaj Morgan led the group with five catches for 45 yards, including a season-long 31-yard touchdown with two minutes left in the game. It was very small consolation.
So far this season, the Michigan receivers have been targeted 31 times and produced just 147 yards. Basically, the Wolverines are averaging just 4.7 yards every time they throw the ball to a wide receiver. Technically that would be fine if every pass was completed, but that’s not how this works.
Not that this is a fair comparison, but Ohio State’s wide receivers have been targeted 50 times this season for 555 yards receiving. That’s 11.1 yards per throw to a Buckeye wideout. Ohio State freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith has been targeted 15 times for 211 yards (14.1). That’s three times the average of a throw to a Michigan wideout, in case you were wondering.
Every single skill player on Michigan’s roster with more than one reception is averaging under 10 yards per catch right now. Semaj Morgan is averaging about as much per reception (7.6) as OSU running backs Quinshon Judkins (7.4) and TreVeyon Henderson (7.3) average per carry.
Michigan can’t stretch the field vertically or horizontally, which is making life even more difficult for the running game. The Wolverines rushed for 80 yards on 23 carries. Donovan Edwards led the way with 41 yards on eight attempts. Kalel Mullings rushed six times for 25 yards. Alex Orji only gave them two rushes for a net loss of a yard.
The play design did Orji no favors in the first half. On third and three from the Texas 19-yard line, Orji had Edwards lined up next to him. Edwards was then motioned out, removing any deception in the play that was about to happen. Either the ball was going to be thrown quickly to Edwards or Orji was going to keep it. It was a run and it went for no gain. Michigan removed any doubt on the play and the Longhorns thanked them for it.
It also doesn’t help when Orji makes bad reads when he’s in the game, which he did in this one on a keeper. Of course, the fact that there is no threat of the pass when he’s in the game means defensive ends and linebackers can handle the limited possibilities that are presented when he’s in the game.
Unless Sherrone Moore is embarking on the second-longest con in college football history, there is absolutely no reason to expect Orji to attempt even a slightly aggressive forward pass this season. They have shown no confidence in him, which likely isn’t making him a more confident passer. But it’s clear they’ve seen all they need to see in practice.
Making matters worse, this offensive line isn’t good enough right now to impose their will. They need some creative help from the coaches and some skillful execution from the playmakers, both of which appear to be out of stock at the moment.
This offense needs to stay ahead of the chains but it’s almost impossible if you can’t put together three productive plays in a row. Michigan is already fighting uphill for yards without a defense like Texas pushing them back down.
And this won’t even be the best defense they see this year.
When Michigan Was On Defense
Quinn Ewers may be the best quarterback the Wolverines face this season, and this Michigan defense made him work for his yards.
He completed 24-of-36 passes for 246 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He was never sacked. He went 0-for-2 in the fourth quarter because they had already packed up the bus. If Texas needed more yards, it seemed clear they could get them. They were on pace for 500 yards of total offense through three quarters.
This game should be an eye-opener for a lot of Michigan folks. Leading up to this season we heard that Michigan’s lack of an established quarterback just meant that they will run the ball at will instead. Likewise, when talking about this pass defense and the missing pieces like Mike Sainristil and Rod Moore, people said, “We’ve got Will Johnson. We’ll be fine.”
Well, Texas just showed everyone that you can simply avoid the All-American cornerback and be just fine. Ewers never really went Johnson’s way, instead attacking redshirt freshman cornerback Jyaire Hill and the Michigan safeties.
The Texas receivers were held pretty well in check, save for a 33-yard completion to Isaiah Bond. Instead it was tight end Gunnar Helm, who went for 98 yards on seven catches, including a touchdown. Linebackers and safeties both had difficulty with him. Half of Helm’s yards came after the catch, which is a coverage and tackling concern.
The Texas running backs were also involved in the passing game, putting the linebackers in a conflict they kept losing.
Maryland transfer Jaishawn Barham was flat-footed way too often in the passing game.
The Texas offensive line was fantastic. They gave Ewers time and he made some good decisions. Michigan just couldn’t capitalize on his small handful of bad decisions.
The Longhorns rushed for 143 yards on 32 attempts, but 55 of that came from freshman receiver Ryan Wingo. Texas is without its top two running backs this season, so outside of the Wingo run, the numbers don’t look too bad. There were drives, however, where Texas pounded the Michigan front seven and there was nothing the Wolverines could do.
Some of those times featured All-American defensive tackle Mason Graham being given a breather on the sideline. One of those instances was in the red zone. I’m not a defensive coordinator, but I’m not leaving my best defensive lineman on the sideline deep down in my own territory. He can get a breather during one of the 47 television timeouts instead.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale threw a bunch of stuff at Quinn Ewers, and Ewers threw it right back at him.
Texas has produced a cheat sheet for Michigan’s upcoming opponents, provided they have the offensive line to hold up to the challenges. The Longhorns had more overall talent, but they won this one in the trenches every step of the way.
The Michigan Special Teams
Dominic Zvada is an NFL kicker. He connected on field goals from 37 and 52 yards. He’s the most consistent offensive player for the Wolverines right now.
At least until he forces a fumble on himself.
Michigan only punted twice in this game, which is normally impressive but here it is more indicative of three turnovers and a turnover on downs. Jim Tressel used to say that any drive that ends in a kick is a good drive. Only five of Michigan’s nine drives against Texas ended in a kick. (Against Fresno State to open the season, nine of the Wolverines’ 10 drives ended in kicks.)
Tommy Doman’s punts went 36 and 28 yards, “respectively.” The return game was non-existent, which is unfortunate because this offense is going to need as much help as it can get.
What Does It All Mean?
It means that the line of scrimmage is a concern.
The offensive line is still being figured out, and the upside of the remaining options is pretty limited. It’s too early to say this is how it’s going to be all season long. They will get better, but the low ceiling is still gonna lead to back issues because of the constant ducking and crouching.
Meanwhile, the defensive line showed that it was possible to wear them down over the course of a game and over the course of a drive. Both are concerning for Michigan given how much they substitute and play their depth.
The possibility of wearing down defensive ends Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore was always going to be there because both players can be considered undersized. If they’re run down and tired, their speed and quickness are neutralized.
Defensive tackle Kenneth Grant has yet to do much of anything resembling what he did last year. Mason Graham is only one person. And he’s actually less than that when he’s on the sideline.
It also means that Michigan’s schedule is starting to look a lot more daunting than it did a month ago.
USC is no longer the likely win that most believed it was, and the trip to Illinois is looking trappier than ever.
At least Oregon is starting to look like a possibility.
There is no part of this Michigan offense that looks like it’s just a play or two away. Rather, they need everything to go almost perfectly. They need breaks, and they didn’t get any against Texas.
Defensively, Michigan should be fine against bad offenses. There will be games where they give the Wolverine offense short fields, which should lead to points. They need to be the prologue to the Michigan offense.
Both sides of the ball will continue to have their issues against a great quarterback and a great defense, but who doesn’t?
The real question is what happens when they face a team with just a good offense and good defense? Will that combination be too much to overcome? How perfect will the Wolverines need to be against a good team?
We may not have to wait long to find out. Southern California comes to town in less than two weeks. If Michigan wants to show people that the Texas loss was more about Texas than Michigan, then both the players and coaches will need to show more against USC than they did against the Longhorns.
As of now, however, there is no reason to believe that this team isn’t just another version of the Wolverines that we saw prior to Jim Harbaugh saying they’d beat Ohio State or die trying.
The Road To The Game
Aug. 31 – Michigan 30 – Fresno State 10 (1-0)
Sept. 7 – Texas 31 – Michigan 12 (1-1)
Sept. 14 – Arkansas State
Sept. 21 – USC
Sept. 28 – Minnesota
Oct. 5 – at Washington
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – at Illinois
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State
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