Michigan Monday: Run For Your Life

There is an old coaching axiom that says “Win the surest way.” There is also another axiom along those lines that says “More games are lost than won.” Give all of the credit to Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore for following both rules and realizing that the surest way against USC was to simply let the Trojans lose the game.

The Wolverines stayed true to who they are — and so did USC. The result was a 27-24 win for Michigan to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Michigan rushed for 290 yards with no threat of the pass against a Trojan defense that broke just three times — but three times was enough thanks to a Wolverine defense that never gave USC quarterback Miller Moss enough time to collect his thoughts, let alone set his feet.

This wasn’t just a team win, this was a teams win because Michigan could not have done it alone.

The final example of this came after the Wolverines punted the ball away trailing 24-20 with just over five minutes left in the game. The Trojans took possession with 5:01 left in the game. They ran the ball on first down, burning 42 seconds off the clock. They then threw two incompletions on screen plays and kicked the ball back to Michigan with 4:10 left in the game.

Instead of running the ball on second and third down and burning another 90 seconds off the clock, Lincoln Riley chose to throw the ball. He thought he was calling safe plays against an aggressive defense, but it didn’t work out that way.

At least the punt pinned the Wolverines at their own 11-yard line.

So, rather than Michigan getting the ball with, say 2:40 left in the game and with 89 yards to go with no passing game, the Wolverines had four minutes with which to take their time. There was absolutely no urgency early in the drive.

On the third play of the drive, running back Kalel Mullings went 63 yards to get the ball into the red zone. It took Michigan 100 seconds to get to that third-down play. What if those 100 seconds never existed?

Lincoln Riley gave Michigan extra time when he didn’t need to give them anything. There’s a possibility that Sherrone Moore would’ve used his two remaining timeouts to preserve time had USC chosen to run the ball, but coaches don’t always want to burn their timeouts that early. At the very least, Riley could’ve chosen to find out.

As it stood, Michigan never needed those timeouts anyway because the improbable happened right on time once again. Mullings ran through a bear hug and arm tackles on the way to the USC 17-yard line at the two-minute timeout.

But how patient would Moore have been if they didn’t have those four minutes? What if he only had a little over two minutes? Would he still have sent new starting quarterback Alex Orji out there to try and throw them down the field?

And if he had, do you think it would have gone all that well?

Michigan made their breaks in this game, but they also took advantage of a couple of free spaces from USC along the way.

When Michigan Was On Offense

Alex Orji completed 7-of-12 passes for 32 yards, featuring a long gain of 10 yards. He was sacked twice. He also gained 54 yards on nine carries.

For the first time in decades, Michigan failed to gain a first down through the air. I only went back to 2000, but could find no other instance of the Wolverines even only having just one first down passing.

Michigan had 12 first downs for the game, which is their fewest in a game since “Trouble With The Snap” in 2015. They had 10 in that game. If they had gotten an 11th, perhaps the Buckeyes are going to the playoffs that year.

The Wolverine passing game is in rarefied air right now, but not in a good way. This kind of air is going to lead to commercials for class-action lawsuits at two in the afternoon on the Travel Channel.

The last time Michigan won a game with just 12 first downs was an 18-13 win over Penn State in 2014. This is not a trend that will prove successful for the Wolverines.

For the first time in his career, however, Alex Orji did complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. It was only about a foot beyond the line of scrimmage, but we’ve got to take what we can get.

Orji was 1-of-6 on passes beyond the line of scrimmage. He was 0-of-5 on passes beyond one yard downfield.

One of our recurring statistics this season is yards per target for the Michigan wide receivers. They were targeted five times in this game and managed to gain 11 yards. That pushes their season total to 45 targets for 199 yards (4.4 ypt).

Michigan was without tight end Colston Loveland in this one but he probably would not have been much of a factor given the current state of the passing game.

As is usually the case, the running game saved the day for Michigan. And when I say “running game,” I mean Kalel Mullings’ runs of 53 and 63 yards, and Donovan Edwards’ touchdown run of 41 yards. The 53-yarder was Michigan’s first score. The 41-yarder was the second score. The 63-yarder led to the final score. When the Wolverines didn’t hit a big run, they didn’t score. They didn’t even come close.

The closest they got on every other drive was the USC 48-yard line. They didn’t gain a first down in the second half until their final scoring drive. Michigan rushed for 290 yards on 46 carries, but 157 of those yards came on three touches. The other 43 carries averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

The running game also nearly cost them the game. Edwards lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that led to the touchdown that gave USC a 24-20 lead.

If Sherrone Moore is going to rely on the running game — and he is — then it needs to be more reliable. Saving the day at the end of the game is exciting, but generally requires bad safety and linebacker play, as well as a swallowed whistle.

It is not a reliable mode of transportation. Just because it got you to work today doesn’t guarantee you anything tomorrow.

Mullings is currently averaging 8.1 yards per carry on the season. Only two of his 17 carries in this game exceeded that average. Four of Edwards’ 14 carries hit his 4.5-yard average.

This kind of offensive attack should not be sustainable.

It’s like a doctor looking at X-ray of a lawn dart sticking out of a patient’s brain and saying, “Technically, you should be dead.”

But for now, Michigan can look at that same X-ray and say, “That may be, Doctor, but I feel great.”

Eventually, however, this offense will bleed out.

When Michigan Was On Defense

When Michigan was on defense they attacked Miller Moss like he said something slightly incorrect on the internet. Edge rusher Josiah Stewart doxxed Morris for four quarters and then had to be talked out of swatting him later that night.

Stewart finished with three tackles for loss, two sacks, and four quarterback hurries. After watching this game, Michigan fans have to be feeling much better about their offensive tackles because, brother, it can always get worse.

And it wasn’t just the tackles. The USC offensive line whiffed more than Javy Baez on a slider in the dirt.

USC rushed for 96 yards on 21 attempts, with 112 of those yards coming in the second half.

That’s right.

And 65 of those 112 yards came on one run from Trojan running back Woody Marks.

Miller Moss completed 28-of-51 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns. He threw a pick six to All-American cornerback Will Johnson. Moss was throwing a quick curl to the slot receiver and Johnson came off of his man, jumped the route, and went 42 yards the other direction to make it 20-10 late in the third quarter.

Will Johnson now has more touchdown catches (2) than the entire Michigan wide receiver room combined (1). He did leave the game with a shoulder injury but it doesn’t seem too serious. Of course, the same was said this time last week of Colston Loveland.

For as much punishment as he took, Moss kept firing. He found some open zones, taking advantage of safety Makari Paige’s lateness. There was also a complete bust on a nickel blitz that left one cornerback to defend two receivers in the red zone.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has received his fair share of criticism this season, but I doubt that one was on him.

This was nickel back Zeke Berry’s most impactful game. He made his presence felt in this game and was playing with confidence against Zachariah Branch, who is one of the most dangerous slot receivers in the Big Ten.

Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant finally played up to expectations as a tandem. Reserve defensive end TJ Guy also had a strong game.

This was a very bad offensive line that Michigan saw, but how many good ones are left on the schedule?

The Michigan Special Teams

This was the best game of the season for punter Tommy Doman, who put four of his eight punts inside the 20 and averaged 49.1 yards per kick. They held dynamic USC returner Zachariah Branch to just 19 yards on three punt returns. They did not allow any kickoff returns.

Receiver Semaj Morgan returned three punts for 34 yards, with a long of 19 yards. Two of his three returns were the beginning of two of Michigan’s three touchdown drives.

What Does It All Mean?

It means that for as much as the Michigansphere loves talking about toughness and running the ball and the results that came with it on Saturday, they still got away with one against USC. Having your offense outscored 21-7 in the second half is not normally a formula for success.

Fortunately for Michigan, this is still a team game and the defense made enough plays to help out.

The Wolverines won the field position battle in the first half. USC’s average starting field position over the first two quarters was their own 16-yard line. They scored three points. Their average starting field position in the second half, however, was their own 37-yard line. They scored 21 points.

The field position battle will only get more and more difficult for a one-dimensional offense.

It also means that Alex Orji now has his first start out of his system and he can look back at this game and see what he got right and what he got wrong. The stuff he got right will build his confidence. The stuff he got wrong can get worked on and adjusted, further building his confidence.

I just wonder how easy it is for a quarterback to build confidence when there is a lack of confidence shown his way. How confident can a quarterback be when he’s not asked to do much in the passing game? And this is not a JJ McCarthy vs. Penn State situation. This is a young quarterback who has not had any success throwing the ball. He is still searching for results.

This game could have gone very, very poorly for Michigan had they needed to throw the ball on their final drive. That situation gets pushed aside for another day, but it won’t be gone forever.

Players grow from their first start to their next start, but this passing game has to get a lot better by November.

Michigan will have to find new ways to win games while doing the same damn thing over and over again. This is going to be a long season. Not because of wins or losses, but because of how arduous some of these games are going to end up being.

This win won’t be easily replicated against future quality opponents, but it’s still a hell of a lot better than an easily replicated loss.

The Road To The Game

Aug. 31 – Michigan 30 – Fresno State 10 (1-0)
Sept. 7 – Texas 31 – Michigan 12 (1-1)
Sept. 14 – Michigan 28 – Arkansas State 18 (2-1)
Sept. 21 – Michigan 27 – USC 24 (3-1, 1-0)
Sept. 28 – Minnesota
Oct. 5 – at Washington
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – at Illinois
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State