College Football Playoff Temperature Check: Who’s Still In, What’s On The Horizon?

The college football season is now past the halfway mark and there are currently 26 Power 4 teams with one loss or less in conference play. Which means there are still 26 teams very much alive for the College Football Playoffs.

That’s not even counting Notre Dame, or the eventual Group of Five champion, or the 18 other Power 4 teams with two losses in conference play that could still find themselves in a conference championship game should things shake out fortuitously for them.

There are ~50 teams still in possession of a mathematical chance of making the playoffs.

Has the regular season been ruined for anybody? It sure doesn’t look like it.

Here is a look at every Power 4 team with one loss or less so far this season.

There will likely be nine or 10 playoff teams that come from this group of 20 teams, and right now all 20 of these teams control their own respective destinies.

That also very much includes Ohio State, who still has Penn State and Indiana coming up on the schedule.

Bracket Attack

While the rankings at this point are meaningless, it does give us an opportunity to plot what the 12-team College Football Playoff would look like today. Even though it’s basically impossible for the bracket to end up this way, it’s still always fun to look at the possibilities.

Here’s what the playoffs would look like today using the AP Poll.

First Round, higher seed hosts.

12. Boise State
5. Penn State

9. LSU
8. Tennessee

11. BYU
6. Ohio State

10. Clemson
7. Texas

A BYU game may not move the needle for Buckeye fans, but if you’re looking for a favorable matchup, landing the second-place team in the Big XII is a pretty good draw.

The 5-seed has long been seen as a promising consolation prize given the fact that they get to play the lowest-ranked team overall and then the lowest-ranked among the conference champs that received a first-round bye.

Whoever ends up at No. 5 may like their slate, but they better be ready to defend the run. Especially if they get matched up against Boise State or a service academy.

Quarterfinals (best guess site based on bowl tie-ins)

Fiesta Bowl
12. Boise State/5. Penn State
4. Iowa State

Rose Bowl
9. LSU/8. Tennessee
1. Oregon

Peach Bowl
11. BYU/6. Ohio State
3. Miami

Sugar Bowl
10. Clemson/7. Texas
2. Georgia

The winners of the hypothetical Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl would play each other, and the winners of the Peach Bowl and Sugar Bowl would play each other.

So something like this.

Semifinals

Cotton Bowl
5. Penn State
8. Tennessee

Orange Bowl
6. Ohio State
7. Texas

And then, of course, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions would meet in Atlanta for the National Championship. Just as you’ve been saying for months.

Unfortunately, even a win over Penn State in the national title game still wouldn’t count as a big win for Ryan Day.

Lost In Scenarios

Before we can get to Monday January 20th and the national title game, however, there are going to be about 72 different tiebreaker situations that will need to be ironed out.

If you really want to pull your hair out, go ahead and create some scenarios in your mind regarding a 5-way tie at 8-1 in the Big Ten and convince yourself you know exactly how things would shake out.

For instance, let’s say Illinois wins at Oregon this weekend, Ohio State beats Penn State in a couple of weeks and then Indiana the week before The Game.

What happens if Illinois, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all finish the regular season 8-1 in conference play?

Here’s what the Big Ten tiebreaker says.

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams.

In this scenario, Ohio State’s winning percentage would be .667, while Penn State, Oregon, and Illinois would all finish .500, and Indiana would be .000. So Ohio State would be the top seed in the Big Ten Championship Game. Who would they play?

I’ll let you go ahead and figure that part out for yourself. Have fun. Let me know what you find out.

2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

3. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings in order of finish.

4. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents: (a) In the event of an unbalanced schedule (i.e., less than nine conference games are played), the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each team played. If winning percentage is equal for all conference
opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker.

5. The representative will be chosen by the by the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.

6. Random draw among the tied teams conducted by Commissioner or designee.

Let The Whittling Begin

Now that more teams are still alive, it means that each week there will be more games that will impact the playoffs. Here’s what you’ll get to look forward to this week.

Syracuse (5-1, 2-1) at 19 Pittsburgh (6-0, 2-0) Thursday, 7:30 pm ESPN
17 Boise State (5-1, 2-0) at UNLV (6-1, 2-0) Friday, 10:30 pm CBSSN
Nebraska (5-2, 2-2) at 4 Ohio State (5-1, 2-1) 12:00 pm FOX
12 Notre Dame (6-1) at 24 Navy (6-0) 12:00 pm ABC
Washington (4-3, 2-2) at 13 Indiana (7-0, 4-0) 12:00 pm BTN
Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3) at 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2) 12:00 pm ESPN
20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1) at 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) 3:30 pm CBS
11 BYU (7-0, 4-0) at UCF (3-4, 1-3) 3:30 pm ESPN
21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1) at 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2) 3:30 pm ABC
5 Texas (6-1, 2-1) at 25 Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1) 4:15 pm SECN
Florida State (1-6, 1-5) at 6 Miami (7-0, 3-0) 7:00 pm ESPN
3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1) 7:30 pm NBC
8 LSU (6-1, 3-0) at 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0) 7:30 pm ABC
Kansas (2-5, 1-3) at 16 Kansas State (6-1, 3-1) 8:00 pm ESPN2
22 SMU (6-1, 3-0) at Duke (6-1, 2-1) 8:00 pm ACCN
Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1) at Colorado (5-2, 3-1) 10:15 pm ESPN

Boise State and UNLV are essentially playing an elimination game Friday night. Notre Dame and Navy could be as well. If Ole Miss is gonna fight back, they are going to have to win out, which would include a win over Georgia. Alabama can’t afford another loss. They should be fine this week against a struggling Mizzou, but would anything surprise us as this point?

Okay, maybe Vandy beating Texas would be a surprise.

Penn State tripping up at Wisconsin wouldn’t surprise Nittany Lions, that’s for sure. Florida State, meanwhile, could make this season a success with one single win this weekend.

So yeah, it’s a pretty big week. But now with 12 slots available, it’s going to be like this every week the rest of the way out. The number of teams will reduce each week, but it will still remain larger than it’s ever been.

More teams have hope. More teams have opportunity. More players can become legendary.

What’s not to love?

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