Michigan Monday: The Land Of Sinkin'

For the first time since Rich Rodriguez was at the helm in 2009, a Michigan football team went into Champaign-Urbana and lost to the Fighting Illini. And for the first time since 2005 under Lloyd Carr, the Wolverines now sit with a 4-3 record on the season.

Michigan went into Saturday’s game favored by nearly a touchdown, but a touchdown was all they could muster in a 21-7 defeat to an Illinois team that lost by this exact score on the road at Penn State just three weeks earlier.

With an off week since the Wolverines’ loss at Washington, Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore had an entire fortnight to prepare for the Illini, and the result was seven total points and a feeling of helplessness that is usually reserved for a call to the Coast Guard.

Moore will get the blame for this catastrophe of a season, but he’s had help in fielding this debacle. There are no quick fixes here. No switches to flip. The problems run deep into the foundation.

Not even the return of the beloved man responsible for Michigan’s recent successes would help at this point.

Nor would the return of Jim Harbaugh.

When Michigan Was On Offense

Jack Tuttle got his first start at quarterback for the Wolverines. He completed 20-of-32 passes for 208 yards with one interception and was sacked five times.

Before you look at those numbers and say, “Hey, that doesn’t look too bad,” it should be mentioned that over the course of the first three quarters of the game, he was 9-of-16 for 79 yards and completed just one pass more than five yards downfield.

Trailing by two scores in the fourth quarter, Tuttle completed 11-of-16 passes against a softened defense over the game’s final 15 minutes. Nothing that was seen from the Michigan passing offense under Tuttle inspired any kind of belief that things are now on the upswing.

Maybe after Tuttle starts this coming week against Michigan State, the Wolverines can then turn to true freshman Jadyn Davis and allow him to get his four games of action in without burning his redshirt.

While Illinois was playing a non-passive defense over the first three quarters of the game, Tuttle completed just one of four passes that traveled more than five yards downfield. He threw a very bad fourth-quarter interception in the red zone when he never saw a second defender drifting into the play. He threw a second-quarter interception that was negated by defensive holding. On the play, Michigan ran a two-man route and Tuttle chose the man that was double covered. Again, he apparently never saw the defender. He also fumbled twice, losing one. It was the second fumble he’s lost in as many games.

People say that Jack Tuttle is a happy medium between Davis Warren’s passing and Alex Orji’s running, but none of this feels all that happy and it still has a hell of a long way to go to get to medium.

The Michigan receivers are powerless to help the quarterbacks. Semaj Morgan is the only Wolverine wide receiver with a catch of 30+ yards this season. It was a 31-yarder earlier in the year. For the season, he has 17 receptions for 106 yards. He’s averaging the same amount of yards per catch (6.2 ypc) that running back Kalel Mullings averages per rush. It’s a ridiculous average in an unserious passing game. If you take out the 31-yarder, he’s averaging just 4.7 yards per catch, which is just about what Donovan Edwards averages per carry (4.9).

Tuttle and the quarterbacks receive a lot of blame, but they’re not alone in owning these struggles. The Illinois pass rush was chasing Tuttle all game long. The Michigan offensive line gave up five sacks and Tuttle’s mobility probably saved five more.

All of the Michigan fans clamoring for Greg Crippen to start at center got their wish and things didn’t go any better than they’ve gone before. Left tackle Myles Hinton was out this week and replaced by Jeffrey Persi. That did not go well either.

As opposing defenses become more and more comfortable with the Wolverines’ inability to pass, the running game has taken a hit. Michigan rushed for 114 yards on 38 attempts against Illinois, averaging a season-low three yards per carry.

Kalel Mullings rushed for 87 yards on 19 carries, with a long of just 11 yards. Over the past two games he has rushed for 133 yards and averaged four yards per carry. Donovan Edwards went for 38 yards on seven attempts with a long of 19 yards. Edwards has also rushed for 133 yards over the past two games, averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Edwards and Tuttle had the two longest rushes for the day. Both carries ended in lost fumbles. When it rains, it pours.

When Michigan Was On Defense

Now for the concerning part.

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer completed 9-of-18 passes for 80 yards with one touchdown and one sack, but the lack of a passing game didn’t seem to impact the Illini’s ability to run.

Illinois rushed for 187 yards on 38 attempts, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. They did get 36 yards on a fake punt to help polish the numbers, but the Illini never really concerned themselves with trying to do too much. They simply took what Michigan gave them and went home with a win.

Illinois had a long completion of just 13 yards — and it didn’t matter.

The Wolverines came into this game having allowed just 10 runs of 10+ yards this season. They allowed six such runs to the Illini.

The defense is trying to hang on, but they’re getting no help from their offense or special teams.

Michigan’s offense had three drives of 60+ yards in this game. They led to just seven points. Illinois, meanwhile, had four scoring drives of under 60 yards that led to all 21 of their points. That also goes to the poor punting, which we’ll mention down below.

All-American cornerback Will Johnson left the game with an injury. It’s easy enough to wonder if he might start thinking about shutting things down considering the nature of the game today and the way the season has gone. He has dealt with different injuries throughout the season, so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. Sherrone Moore didn’t provide any clarity on Johnson’s availability this week against the Spartans.

Needless to say, if they don’t have him this week, the defensive line better step it up even more. And the secondary might want to get ready for some fireworks.

Michigan held Illinois to 3-of-11 on third downs and allowed just 267 yards of total offense. It is the fewest yards the Wolverines have allowed in a loss since a 14-10 loss to Michigan State in 2017 when they allowed just 252 yards.

The defense is doing what it can, but against the run it looks like it might be starting to do less than it used to. And if the pass protection holds up, we already know this secondary can be had.

The Michigan Special Teams

This was one of Michigan’s worst special teams performances that I can remember. On a team where every yard is valued and field position is required for victory, the special teams did the Wolverines no favors on Saturday.

Punter Tommy Doman punted three times for an average of 32.7 yards with a long of just 36 yards. And it’s not because he was pooch-punting. None of his kicks landed inside the 20-yard line. The inability to flip the field is making it harder and harder for this team to win games. Illinois’ average starting field position after those punts was their own 37-yard line.

Amazingly, only one of those punts preceded a touchdown drive. The first one led to Illinois pinning Michigan at their own 11-yard line. The second drive ended on a failed fourth-down conversion attempt.

So yeah, this score could have been even worse.

As the holder on placements, Tommy Doman also fumbled a snap which led to a blocked field goal attempt for Dominic Zvada.

At least the Wolverines blocked a field goal of their own at the end of the second quarter to even things out.

Oh, and there was also the successful fake punt by Illinois that gained 36 yards in the third quarter and led to a touchdown four plays later to make it 21-7. Illinois head coach Bret Bielema gambled and won, putting the game too far out of reach for even the Illini to screw it up.

What Does It All Mean?

It means that if you just don’t give Michigan the game, they will lose. It’s really pretty simple. They don’t have the ability to move the ball consistently down the field for an entire game, and they’re periodically losing the ability to stop it from being moved consistently.

They can’t afford to lose the turnover battle, but they have quarterbacks who turn the ball over more than most.

Fortunately for the Wolverines, they have Michigan State coming to town, and trying to convince Sparty not to make mistakes is like trying to convince Jim Harbaugh that the grass isn’t greener in the NFL.

It also means that if the people inside and around the Michigan program lied so blatantly about their confidence in the quarterback position before the season, it makes you wonder what other tall tales are being fed inside and around Schembechler Hall over the past year or so.

And is that proposition actually better or worse than not knowing that the quarterback situation was going to be this bad?

The Road To The Game

Aug. 31 – Michigan 30 – Fresno State 10 (1-0)
Sept. 7 – Texas 31 – Michigan 12 (1-1)
Sept. 14 – Michigan 28 – Arkansas State 18 (2-1)
Sept. 21 – Michigan 27 – USC 24 (3-1, 1-0)
Sept. 28 – Michigan 27 – Minnesota 24 (4-1, 2-0)
Oct. 5 – Washington 27 – Michigan 17 (4-2, 2-1)
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – Illinois 21 – Michigan 7 (4-3, 2-2)
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State