Three Shots: Nebraska

We are back with three shots after the final open week of the season for the Buckeyes.

I am finding that scoring any points is becoming a challenge as I have only made three “free throws” since starting this segment.

I take back all the things I said about Tom and Tony in their predictions over the years, this is a lot more difficult than I ever anticipated.

I could really make the picks easier and pad the score, but I have set my degree of difficulty already and I am going to ride with it.

For those who are new to the piece, I am making three game predictions, one should be easy like a free throw, one is more difficult like a three-pointer and then we are taking a full court shot, taking an absolute flier on a pick.

Attention turns now to the Huskers, how do I see this one playing out?

two weeks ago

Free Throw – Jeremiah Smith will have a touchdown reception (two-handed counts)

Status: Hit

This almost seems to be too easy of a bet each week, but I will take it from time to time because I need to score some points. Smith was on the receiving end of a 6-yard pass from Will Howard in the third quarter that gave the Buckeyes a 28-22 lead.

Smith was targeted a team high 13 times in the game and had nine receptions for 100 yards. Fans will play the ‘what if’ game for a long time when it came to a late offensive pass interference call against Smith on Ohio State’s final drive, that knocked the Buckeyes out of field goal range.

Three Pointer – Ohio State will double up the net rushing total over Oregon

Status: Miss

If you are going to miss, miss big. It is not a case of Ohio State running poorly, or even Oregon running well, but the Ducks ended the game with a plus-14 yard edge on the ground.

The loss of Josh Simmons certainly did not help Ohio State in this game and the Buckeye run game suffered in the second half. There is no telling what would have been the case if Simmons did not exit the game.

Going into the game, Ohio State was the more competent running team, but give credit to the Ducks for sticking with the run and eventually getting Jordan James going at a clip of 5.0 YPC and 115 yards on the night.

This is a bet (Ohio State doubling up its opponent on the ground) that I am willing to make later in the season, it just didn’t pay off this time.

Full Court – Ohio State will hold Oregon to fewer than 10 points

Status: Miss

Woof. Or should I say Quack.

It is a full court shot and you have to make it count if you are going to take the shot.

Not much that I can say here other than I threw it over the basket and hit some poor unsuspecting fan in the 4th row in the face with my errant air ball.

It happens.

Current Score: 3

free throw

Three different Ohio State receivers will have at least one receiving touchdown

After typing out the pick, I went and looked and realized that I potentially made this more difficult than I needed to.

I really have no doubt that the Buckeyes will score at least three passing touchdowns, but I went into the stats to look and saw that the Buckeyes have only five players with receiving touchdowns.

Obviously Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith make up the biggest portion, with 13 of Ohio State’s 16 passing scores. But the other three scores have gone to Carnell Tate, Gee Scott Jr., and Bennett Christian.

That doesn’t mean that the Buckeyes can’t spread it around more, and I am expecting to get my point on this one, but at this point, it is obvious that there are two receivers seeing most of the action in the end zone.

three pointer

Ohio State will have at least 500 yards of total offense

There is a lot to unpack here, let me see if I can do it without getting too wordy.

Even after a disastrous game against Indiana, the Huskers are allowing just slightly more than 300 yards per game (304.3 YPG) to opponents. Saying that the Buckeyes will best that by 200 yards is saying something.

Ohio State has eclipsed the 500-yard mark twice, against Marshall (569 yards) and against Western Michigan (683 yards). In the other four games, the Buckeyes have been in the 400-yard mark.

I really don’t feel that Nebraska has played anyone with a real offensive pulse outside of the Hoosiers. Sure, you can be on the Illinois bandwagon, another loss for the Huskers. Even Colorado ranks in the middle of the pack (63rd) in total offense. And we are talking about yardage here, not points.

Ohio State has less of a margin for error than it had two weeks ago, and with that, I feel that Ryan Day will pour it on when he can. There is no bad blood between these two teams that would call for that sort of treatment, but this is show business and not show friends, and a big win would go a long way in calming things in Buckeye Nation.

full court

Ohio State’s defense will outscore Nebraska’s offense

Which part is the more difficult one here, Ohio State’s defense putting up points or holding Nebraska to little/no scoring?

You will have to wait a day to get my score prediction for this game, but I am not giving Nebraska a lot of points. But will the Buckeyes not only be able to force takeaways, but also score on those plays?

There is a lot of skill and a little luck when it comes to that. I just have a feeling that I will draw iron on this one, if I don’t make the shot. Just call it a hunch.

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