Three Shots: Penn State

The Buckeyes head back out on the road for their second top-five match-up of the season as they have a date with Penn State in Happy Valley.

The last couple of weeks have been anything but happy for many Ohio State fans who have seen Ohio State go through a close loss at Oregon, followed up with a bye week and then a close win over Nebraska.

Injuries have not been kind to this team with the season-long loss of Josh Simmons and a current streak of not having Lathan Ransom out on the field for the Buckeyes.

But you have to play with the deck that you are given at the start of the season and the Buckeyes have to figure this one out because a second loss would be extremely damaging to the postseason hopes and goals of this team.

My success on Three Shots has not really changed when it comes to the performance of the team, I am hitting a good number of my free throws and nothing else (sounds like my intramural basketball career).

For those new to the piece, it is a variation of “Bold Predictions” but in this instance, I am taking a free throw (one point), a three pointer (obviously three points) and a full court shot (which should only count for three in a regular basketball game, but we are giving out 10 points, for the sake of intellectual honesty).

How did I do last week and what are my picks going into the Penn State game?

last week

Free Throw: Three different Ohio State receivers will have at least one receiving touchdown

Status: Hit

Okay, maybe I am trying to pull a fast one on people with this one, because technically Ohio State had touchdowns passes to two receivers (Carnell Tate, Jeremiah Smith) and a running back (Quinshon Judkins) and I said three receivers with the prediction.

But I am not here to apologize, as Judkins was a receiver when he had his nine-yard touchdown reception from Will Howard.

The significance of the pick largely was that the majority of receiving touchdowns on the team were going to Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Getting a third player involved was not really in the cards for the contested game, and that was the methodology behind the decision.

Have a problem with it? You know how to reach me.

Three Pointer: Ohio State will have at least 500 yards of total offense

Status: Miss

This one is really straightforward, 500 yards of total offense or not.

It was not. Ohio State had 285 yards of total offense. Fortunately, Ohio State had 21 points to Nebraska’s 17 points.

The Buckeyes had 47 offensive plays in the game, meaning that the Buckeyes would have needed to get 10-plus yards per play to hit the 500 yard mark.

Win some, lose some.

Full Court: Ohio State’s defense will outscore Nebraska’s offense

Status: Miss

I wasn’t even close with this one. I really felt that Ohio State could hold Nebraska to seven or fewer points and I also saw a quarterback in Dylan Raiola that had the possibility of throwing a couple of interceptions that could be taken back the other way.

Neither of those came to be true. It’s a full court shot for a reason.

Current Score: 4

free throw

Ohio State will have at least two rushing touchdowns

On the surface, that doesn’t sound like much of a bold pick, but if you look at the last three games, Ohio State has not hit the two touchdown mark in two of the games, with none against Nebraska and one against Iowa.

Penn State has allowed four rushing scores on the year, two of those taking place in the past two starts. Nobody has scored two in a game however, so it will be Ohio State’s desire to run the ball against Penn State’s stubbornness against the run.

Yes, a lot of this is going to be a referendum on Ohio State’s ability to run the ball, and as I said in Tale of the Tape earlier in the week, Ohio State doesn’t have to win the rushing battle to win this game, but it sure helps.

three pointer

Ohio State will not allow a rushing touchdown to Penn State

I looked at this a couple of different ways.

On one hand, nobody has kept Penn State out of the end zone this season. Penn State has had at least one touchdown in every game and has had two or more in four of the seven games. Penn State really seems to have found a groove when it comes to moving the ball on the ground and keeping Penn State out of the end zone seems like a major ask.

On the other hand, I was ready to go back through the years to find the last time that Ohio State has kept Penn State out of the end zone in a game and my expectations were that I was going to have to sort back for a decade or more to find that.

Wrong.

The last time it happened? Last year in 2023.

But this is not the 2023 team, it is the 2024 team, so we are going to ride with this.

full court

Ohio State shuts out Penn State

There have been three shutouts in the history of this series and none of them have been in the Big Ten era for Penn State.

Ohio State has never shut out Penn State, all three shutouts were handed out by the Nits (1978, 1964, 1912).

You have to go back to 2009 for the last time that Ohio State has held Penn State to single-digit scoring. That’s fine because you have to go back to 2008 for the last time Penn State has held Ohio State to single-digit scoring.

A shutout is a big ask here, Penn State has scored at least 27 points in every game this season. A full court shot has to be akin to a Hail Mary. This certainly is.

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