Staff Picks: Buckeyes Head to Happy Valley for Top 5 Showdown

For the second time in four weeks, Ohio State will hit the road for a Top Five matchup with major conference championship implications. The Buckeyes are hoping for a better result this time against undefeated Penn State.

Ohio State has won 9 of the last 10 against James Franklin’s squad, but will this time be different or will the Buckeyes continue their dominance over their conference rival?

Ross Fulton

Against Tom Allen’s 4 down mix of cover 1 and cover 4, Chip Kelly needs to get back to what he was doing earlier this season–mixing a diverse run game with a heavy amount of wide receiver screens and RPOs. The key for Ohio State is getting the football outside where they have an advantage against Penn State’s secondary.

On defense, Jim Knowles needs to minimize mistakes against Andy Kotelnicki’s heavy use of shifts and motions by continuing to use more and more cover 2 where the Buckeyes can set the front and easily adjust. If Ohio State can score four touchdowns, they should be in good shape to win.

Ohio State 29 Penn State 25

Tony Gerdeman

After watching Ohio State manage to come from ahead to barely beat Nebraska, I was pretty sure I was picking Penn State in this game. The inability to run the ball and the lack of answers at left tackle are not a recipe for winning on the road against a talented defense.

Plus, the Buckeyes need this game more than Penn State does, and when this team has absolutely needed a win, they haven’t really been able to get it. After watching Penn State come from behind to win at Wisconsin last Saturday night, however, I came to the realization that the Nittany Lions were not an unbeatable foe.

I think Will Howard is going to be able to throw the ball against this secondary. I don’t know if Ohio State will be able to run the ball. I don’t think there will be enough points scored that somebody not being able to run the ball should eliminate them from being in this game in the fourth quarter. If the Buckeyes CAN run it, then this can be a two-score win. If they can’t, then you better buckle up.

Beau Pribula threw the ball last week better than he’s ever done, so you probably don’t need to expect him to complete 11-of-13 attempts in this one. Also, since Drew Allar is likely gonna play, they may not throw that much with Pribula anyway. He’s going to run it though. Tight end Tyler Warren will line up everywhere. He was not a downfield threat last week but that may have been because of Allar’s injury late in the second quarter. Penn State doesn’t do anything great on offense, so they shouldn’t suddenly be able to do something great in this one. I’m gonna ride with Will Howard in this one. He’s back in his home state playing in the stadium he’s always wanted to play in.

Ohio State 24 Penn State 20

Marc Givler

If Ohio State wants to win a Big Ten championship and keep a first round bye in the playoffs on the table, the Buckeyes will need to get a win in Happy Valley on Saturday afternoon.

Penn State’s offense, regardless of which quarterback gets the most snaps on Saturday, is improved and more creative than we’ve seen in recent years. Meanwhile, the Ohio State defense is facing more questions than most expected at this point and once again came up short in a big spot in the loss to Oregon.

The hurdles here seem more mental than physical and the Nittany Lions have their own mental hurdles to clear as well, losing 9 of the last 10 to the Buckeyes.

Defensively, Ohio State will need to keep tabs on tight end Tyler Warren who is having a tremendous season and will move around the formation quite a bit for Penn State. The Buckeyes should be able to win the matchups on the outside against the Penn State receivers.

Offensively, the Buckeyes absolutely must establish the run game early, even if that includes using Will Howard as a glorified power back.

Slow down Warren, establish the run, and the Buckeyes can win a close one over a very good PSU team.

Ohio State 27 Penn State 24

Kevin Noon

The feeling around Buckeye Nation this week is not equivalent to a 6-1 record for the team. And in some regards, I can almost understand. Ohio State is coming off a close loss (Oregon), an open week, and then a close win (Nebraska) that showed a lot of rough edges around this team that was supposed to go full-Death Star on the rest of the Big Ten.

Both teams are facing key injuries and while a lost left tackle is almost as bad as it can get, will Penn State have its starting RT, DE and most importantly, QB?

I don’t have a crystal ball to know what personnel is going to look like, what I do know is that Ohio State is a field goal (or so) favorite at Penn State. But Ohio State also was a favorite at Oregon.

Penn State is not Oregon. There is no reason to substitute Oregon in for PSU in trying to handicap this game.

The Buckeyes had an all-around bad game against Nebraska, I am not going to try and act like that game didn’t happen.

Georgia had a bad game (Alabama), Texas had a bad game (Georgia), Alabama had two bad games (Vandy, Tennessee) and the beat goes on and on.

Ohio State bounces back in this game, and still will be tested. But JT Tuimoloau still plays for Ohio State and as a bull will charge when he sees that red cape, JT charges when he hears that awful lion roar. Buckeyes ice this one late. 

 Ohio State 31 Penn State 21

Tom Orr

This might be the single biggest two-way narrative-shaping game of the 2024 college football regular season. Penn State and James Franklin are 1-9 against the Buckeyes over the past 10 years. Franklin has a reputation as a coach who can’t get over the hump and can’t win the big one. With a win, they’ll clear their biggest hurdle of the regular season, likely end up in the Big Ten Championship Game, and almost certainly sew up a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

Meanwhile, the sentiment that Ryan Day can’t win the big one has started to grow around the Ohio State fanbase, too. This involves a little more of a selective approach to data collection, but narrow losses to Oregon this year, Michigan in 2023, Georgia and Michigan in 2022, and Michigan and Oregon in 2021 have started to sour a portion of the fanbase on Day. Another loss this weekend will only increase the volume of the grumbling, even if it doesn’t knock the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff picture. 

Neither team looked great last weekend against middling former Big Ten West squads, and both have significant injury questions. Penn State’s QB Drew Allar appears likely to play, but the status of DE Dani Dennis-Smith and RT Anthony Donkoh are more uncertain. Ohio State is likely to have to make another shuffle on its already-shaky offensive line, after losing two left tackles in as many games.

This game is likely to be close, low-scoring, and nerve-wracking, and if we’re being honest, is too close to call with any real confidence. It’s likely to come down to how well the Buckeye offensive line can hold up. If they can do just enough, Ohio State’s skill-talent advantage should win out. 

Ohio State 20 Penn State 17