Staff Picks: Buckeyes Host Hoosiers in Top 5 Showdown

The surprising Indiana Hoosiers roll into town a top five team as the Buckeyes look to keep their Big Ten championship hopes alive. Will the upstart Hoosiers continue to surprise the college football world or will the Buckeyes continue their march toward a rematch with Oregon in Indianapolis?

Ross Fulton

Indiana has been one of the best teams in the country in staying on schedule offensively by living off RPOs. Kurtis Rourke is more than happy to pull and throw quickly. The key for Jim Knowles is to mix cover 1 man with cover 4 matching to limit linebackers in conflict and force Indiana to run the football against the Ohio State front.

Defensively, Indiana will stunt a lot up front with pressure off the edge, making up for being undersized by spilling the football. And they will find a variety of ways to disguise cover 3 and cover 2 Tampa. Chip Kelly needs to diagnose what Indiana is doing defensively, get the football outside the slanting, and again hit those middle level routes underneath the dropping pole runner. Look for more involvement from Will Howard on the ground and a big game from Emeka Egbuka.

Ohio State 33 Indiana 22

Tony Gerdeman

I expect Indiana to be able to move the ball, so the Buckeyes’ ability to adjust and regroup in the second half is going to be key. Michigan’s defensive line dominated this game in the second half two weeks ago. Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke had no time to throw, which was a stark difference to the first half of the game. The Buckeyes can’t let him get comfortable, and when they have free shots on him from effective blitzing, they have to tackle him. Offensively, the Buckeyes will be by far the best offense that the Hoosiers have seen this year.

With the offensive line adjustments, the Indiana defense will likely attack the A-gap with Carson Hinzman and Austin Siereveld. They lead the Big Ten in sacks, but they don’t really do it with the blitz. It comes mostly from a defensive line that makes things interesting with movements and twists. If the pass protection is there, the Buckeyes should be able to throw the ball. Will Howard has been outstanding this season and been pretty clean the last two weeks, but now the competition ramps back up again. I think he’ll put up some numbers in this one. It’s also time to get Jeremiah Smith back involved with the end zone again.

Ohio State 34 Indiana 20

Marc Givler

The question that everyone is asking and that we’ll find out the answer to on Saturday is ‘is Indiana for real?’. I tend to believe they are. The Hoosiers have mostly dominated their schedule, which is admittedly soft, and are playing with tremendous confidence and energy.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is one of the nation’s best and his experience will be key for a Hoosiers team looking for one of the biggest wins in program history on Saturday afternoon.

Ohio State’s offensive line continues to concern me. They have guys who have done an admirable job in a tough spot, but we’re going to see yet another new combination on Saturday.

Ultimately, I think Ohio State’s talent is going to win out here. Indiana is going to put some points up, but I think the Buckeyes will cause a big turnover or two and will be able to move the ball as they have on every defense they have faced this season. So a big play or two on defense, and a couple of explosive plays on offense for the Buckeyes allow them to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Ohio State 31 Indiana 21

Chip Minnich

Indiana is coming into Ohio Stadium brimming with confidence, and the longer the game remains in doubt, the better for that confidence.  Ohio State’s defense is going to be tested from start to finish, and it will be imperative that Jim Knowles and his staff are able to adjust, as they have been capably doing these past few weeks. 

The loss of Seth McLaughlin is extremely distressing, but having Carson Hinzman with a year’s worth of starting experience, plus his rejuvenated confidence, has me believing that the offensive line is ready to step up for this clash between two top five teams.  It will be close all throughout, and I have it…

Ohio State 31 Indiana 24

Kevin Noon

I normally write my prediction earlier in the week but the news of the injury to Seth McLaughlin caused me to take a little pause and give this an extra thought. I really was not considering changing ‘who’ I was going to pick, but rather the margin.

It is possible to respect the job that Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana and think that this game isn’t exactly all that close, records be damned.

Despite having four of the top five teams in the CFP rankings, the Big Ten has been extremely average beyond that. Ohio State somehow is drawing all three of the other top teams while everyone else has managed only to draw one, being Ohio State.

Anyone who knows me knows that I am a big “losses matter” guy, and Indiana has none, so that should mean something, and it does, to a point. But IU has also played road games at UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State, meaning that it has faced crowds of 10s of fans, hardly a real test.

Enough about Indiana, what is Ohio State doing at offensive line? Even if we know the starting five, that doesn’t mean we ‘really know’ what this line is going to look like. Indiana does have a good defensive front, even if it has feasted on bad competition, but does this latest change on the OL make the unit average or below average for Ohio State?

The Buckeyes are just too talent and too deep and while this may change a few plans for the Buckeyes, I expect Ohio State’s defense to do a number on the IU offense and the Ohio State offense to score enough, but not nearly as many as I was once planning on picking.

On Tuesday, I had the Buckeyes winning this by three-plus scores, but I am going to dial that back some, injuries matter and offensive center is a difficult one to adjust to. Buckeyes win, just not as big. 

Ohio State 28 Indiana 17

Tom Orr

In a college football season filled with incredible stories, the Indiana Hoosiers have been arguably the best of all. They’re 10-0, already a record for wins in a season. They hadn’t even managed to win nine games in a single season since their improbable run to the Rose Bowl in 1967, and they haven’t been unbeaten through 10 games since the 1945 IU team finished the season at 9-0-1. No, their schedule has not been great, or even good, but the Hoosiers have absolutely annihilated almost everyone they’ve played. While folks in the Banjo Belt are acting like Strength of Schedule is the only measure of a team, Indiana sits at sixth in the nation in Strength of Record, and their FPI ranking puts them ahead of teams like Clemson, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. They have handled their business all season, and put themselves in position to not only play in the College Football Playoff, but potentially even host a game. And with a win on Saturday, they could earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. This is absolutely unprecedented and should be something that is celebrated across the sport. This is the promise of the Transfer Portal era coming true, and it is awesome. 

All that said… Indiana has not faced a team with anything close to Ohio State’s firepower on either side of the ball at any point this season. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in offensive FEI, an opponent-adjusted measure of scoring efficiency. The top team that the Hoosiers have faced so far this year is Washington, which checks in at No. 49. Ohio State ranks as the top team in the nation in overall FEI, including offense, defense, and special teams. The highest-ranking IU opponent to date is Nebraska at No. 35. 

Indiana has had a week off to get healthy and prepare for this game, but still figure to struggle to run the football, and may have a tough time matching up on the outside with the Buckeyes’ skill talent. Look for the Hoosiers to keep things interesting before the Buckeyes pull away late. And yes, even with a loss, Indiana should absolutely earn a spot in the playoff this year.

Ohio State 31 Indiana 21