Three Shots: Michigan

I came really close this past week in hitting more than one prediction, but things happen and I only ended up scoring one.

Ohio State didn’t play a perfect game against Indiana, but who really plays a perfect game?

The answer is nobody.

When it was all said and done, the Buckeyes walked out of The Shoe with a 23-point win, snuffed out Indiana’s unbeaten season and set themselves up for ‘The Game’ with everything on the line.

Here on ‘Three Shots’, I am only competing against myself. That is how good I am. Or is it because I asked nobody to join me in this piece.

Hard to come in second when you are a field of one.

Once again, I will make three predictions, one will be more simple, a free throw (one point), and then a three-pointer (three points) and then a full court shot (10 points) will round it out as a hail mary type of prediction.

You already know I am picking the Buckeyes to win big this week, but can I hit my shots?

last week

Free Throw: Ohio State will rush for 125 yards or more

Status: Miss

I came very close here, just 10 yards off and the Buckeyes did have 129 rushing yards, but sacks and negative rushes cost me the yards that I needed to win the pick,

Still, Ohio State bettered the average number of rushing yards that IU had been giving up per contest, just 72.2 going up until the game. I figured Ohio State would look to try and establish the run more, especially with Michigan coming up next, but I also knew that Ohio State was still dealing with a reworked offensive line and that might create issues.

I actually made my pick before learning of the injury, and I wasn’t going to change things out or lower the number. Setting the number at 100 would have been underwhelming and I would have been bored with it.

We will get them next time.

Three Pointer: Ohio State will sack Indiana quarterbacks more than four times

Status: Hit

I had forgotten that I made this pick and was surprised and happy when I saw that I did.

Just for a little backstory, Indiana had given up six sacks in its previous six weeks and while Michigan had gotten to them twice, nobody was putting up big sack numbers against the Hoosiers.

Was is the key word in that statement, because Ohio State’s pressure was too much for the Indiana front and quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

Five sacks gets me three points and I am happy about that.

Full Court: Ohio State scores 40-plus points and nets 525-plus yards of total offense

Status: Miss

I got close on the points (thank you Indiana for pushing Ohio State to score a last second touchdown) but nowhere close on the yards.

I honestly expected Ohio State to have more offensive success, regardless of what Indiana’s defensive numbers were coming into the game.

But when you have a punt return for a touchdown and then also capitalize on bad mechanics on another punt, you don’t have long fields to work with.

It is not as if Ohio State had a lot of offensive plays to work with, just 55. I felt that Indiana would play more uptempo to attempt put pressure on the Buckeyes.

Whatever Indiana did, stopped working after the first quarter.

Current Score: 12

free throw

TreVeyon Henderson will score a touchdown and 75+ yards

Henderson has played against Michigan twice (missed one due to injury) and really has never been ‘right’ going into this game with injuries and hitting a freshman wall in year one (my words, not his).

He ran for 74 yards in the 2021 game and had a rushing score (as well as a receiving score). So we are going to top that by saying 75 yards and adding a score (either run or receiving) to the mix.

While I expect Quinson Judkins to play a big role as well, you know that Henderson really wants this one, going through this exercise three previous times, only to get turned away.

three pointer

Ohio State will sack Michigan quarterbacks (and wildcat QBs) four or more times

Let’s just run with it again.

I did add wildcat QBs, even though most of the time, that player is in there to run the ball and not pass and the sack potential is low.

But I also expect Michigan to throw anything it has within arm’s reach at the Buckeyes.

The Buckeyes have sacked Michigan QB’s four times total over the last four games. The Buckeyes just have not been able to generate much pass rush in the game and you need to go back to 2018 for the last time that Ohio State had three or more sacks.

Michigan has only given up 15 sacks on the year. But Indiana also was stingy with sacks allowed until Ohio State faced the Hoosiers.

full court

Ohio State will score 40+ points and hold Michigan to fewer than 14 points

Maybe this one is too easy, maybe it is too difficult.

How did I get to my numbers? I took the average of Ohio State’s last four wins over Michigan, which game up as 40 points.

The Michigan average was too high, just shy of 29 points, so we couldn’t do that, so I cut the number in half (and rounded down) to get to 14.

I feel pretty confident in Ohio State’s ability to hold Michigan to under 14 points, but the 40 points may take some work with the new clock rules and the likelihood that Michigan takes a page out of Northwestern’s book and tries to bleed the clock with the belief that it can win a low-scoring, close game rather than a shoot out.

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