Winning The Game: What Ohio State’s D Must Do

We wrap up our quick series on what the Buckeyes need to do to win the upcoming game with Tennessee by looking at the defensive side of the ball. We kicked things off on Monday with a look at the offense, where the Buckeyes must be successful and what benchmarks may need to be hit.

Now we go over to the other side of the ball, Ohio State still ranks No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense and is in the top 10 in rush defense, pass defense and red zone defense.

Things get real though as Ohio State faces a team that it has only faced once with the Volunteers of Tennessee and while this is not your typical B1G versus SEC bowl game, with the game set to take place in frigid Ohio as part of the first round of the College Football Playoff, there are still demons lurking in December and January for Ohio State, even with a win over Bama in the first year of the four-team College Football Playoffs.

Without further delay, let’s just jump right into things.

HOLD TENNESSEE TO 21 POINTS OR FEWER

This may be easier said than done but hear me out on this one.

In the offensive piece, I said that Ohio State needs to get to at least 24 points, so anything less than 24 would be a win, if this were to be the case.

In seven of Tennessee’s last eight losses (all taking place in 2022-24) the Vols have scored 20 or fewer points. The only exception would be the South Carolina game of 2022 when the Vols scored 38 points but gave up 60-something in losing effort.

Yes, every team is different and comparing the 2022 team to the 2024 team is not exactly honest, in terms of the personnel that we will see Saturday night, but I have asked a lot of SEC observers about the Vols and about head coach Josh Heupel and they all agree that he can be very conservative in his approach and that is not the makeup of a team that generally makes furious comebacks, outside of spotting Vanderbilt with a 14-point lead in the season finale.

In SEC competition, Tennessee is only averaging just 25 points per game and in SEC road games, the number drops to just 23, and that is including the 36 scored in Nashville.

This game could break all trends and be a high-scoring affair, but I don’t see it with the weather and the unfamiliarity between the two teams. I am not going to pick 25-20 for my score but expect it to be close.

HOLD DYLAN SAMPSON TO 140 YARDS ON THE GROUND

The game of football is about points and not yards but stating a touchdown number is just boring and wouldn’t get many reads or repeated in many conversations. Using our metric of the last eight Tennessee losses also is not fair because it was Jaylen Wright running the ball last season with just a smattering of Dylan Sampson.

Sampson was held to fewer than 140 yards in seven games this season, but three of those games saw him score 10 touchdowns (Chattanooga, Kent State, Florida) so once again, there is something to be said about points versus yards.

Sampson is averaging 5.8 YPC both at home and on the road, so there isn’t really a big difference there, but he does average about three more attempts at home per game.

In the four SEC road contests, he had 90 carries for 511 yards and four scores. That was good for 127.8 yards on 22.5 carries and a 5.68 YPC average. Vandy ran the numbers up some with 178 yards, meaning that the other three road games were a more pedestrian 110.3 yards.

Sampson also has not found the end zone as much in the waning stages of the season, just three touchdowns over the last four games.

GET AFTER NICO IAMALEAVA

This seems to be a basic statement, but we are not trying to reinvent the wheel here.

There is going to be a lot of talk about Tennessee’s defensive pressure, but opponents have been able to return it in kind.

In four SEC road games, Iamaleava has been sacked 12 times, including nine in the two losses to Georgia and Arkansas. The only game of the four without a sack was the Vandy game, which is predictable, with apologies to Alabama.

I have said it once and I will say it again, the Vols are a very different team on the road than they are at home. Iamaleava is no different as a 67/108 passer for 773 yards and five touchdowns with just one pick in four games. That is good for a completion clip of 62-percent and 7.2 yards per attempt. The numbers are a little skewed with four of the five passing touchdowns occurring against Vanderbilt.

Tennessee fans will claim that it was because it is a young team that needed to grow up, but the UGA game took place in November as well and Iamaleava threw for 167 yards and no touchdowns in that game.

The young Tennessee quarterback can tuck the ball and run but those numbers were not great on the road either, with 37 carries for 98 yards (sack adjusted) and zero touchdowns.

KEEP DONT’E THORNTON JR. IN CHECK

This is another category where I could assign a number or benchmark, but it seems pointless because success is measured win wins and losses more than anything.

Ohio State’s path to a win is easier with Thornton Jr. not making an impact.

He is a big body at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds and is the Vols leading receiver in scores. He has 23.4-percent of all Tennessee receiving yards and is the only wide receiver with more than two touchdowns.

Four of his six touchdowns were against teams from the Volunteer state against Chattanooga and Vanderbilt. Ohio fortunately does not share a border with the state of Tennessee.

For all the platitudes, he doesn’t have more than five receptions in a game, so it would be in Ohio State’s best interest to keep him south of that number. The Buckeyes have given up seven catches to four players this season including the likes of Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson for Oregon and gave up eight to Marshall’s Elijah Metcalf. Between those 36 receptions, Ohio State only gave up three touchdowns.

CONTROL THE CLOCK, SO TO SPEAK

Teams have tried to take the air out of the ball against Ohio State this season and keep the Ohio State offense off the field.

Because of that, Ohio State is 73^rd in the nation in TOP, holding the ball just 29:54 per contest. The Vols are eight seconds worse than the Buckeyes, coming in at No. 76.

I am not saying that Ohio State needs to bleed the clock and limit possessions, you don’t go into a game like this and try to be a team that you are not.

The Vols may like to go fast, but Tennessee has seen a major disparity in TOP in its last eight losses, coming up on the short end of the stick in all eight games.

The Georgia loss was almost down the middle, but against Arkansas (2024) the Hawgs held Tennessee to just 24:31 of offensive possession.

The numbers are even more dramatic in 2023, with UGA holding Tennessee to just 19:02 of possession and the numbers were not much better in the other three games (UF – 22:32, Missouri – 20:04, Bama – 27:41).

And it even goes back into 2022 with South Carolina holding Tennessee to 21:02 of total possession, despite the Vols scoring 38 (and giving up 63).

TOP is not the end-all be-all by any stretch of the imagination, but the Buckeyes did out possess their opponents six times this season, for whatever that is worth. It would just bring things full circle if the Buckeyes slowed things down to win a game for a change.

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