Staff Picks: Buckeyes Host Tennessee in the First Round of the CFP

Ohio State will be part of history this weekend as one of four schools to host a college football playoff game. The last outing was one to forget for the Buckeyes. Will they bounce back or will The Game beat them twice?

Ross Fulton

Ryan Day and Chip Kelly are well aware that they need to make a significant change schematically from the Michigan game. Look for less zone read and lots of quick game and RPOs on passing downs–hitting hitches and slants against Tennessee’s single high early down coverage schemes. Look for Day and Kelly to feature Emeka Egbuka and Treyveon Henderson in the passing game against the Volunteers’ interior man coverage, while using JJ Smith on a lot more short and intermediate routes to get him the football. And expect the Buckeyes to use a higher percentage of gap and trap concepts while involving Will Howard more in the run game to get the ball to the perimeter.

The Ohio State defense has to win the matchup with the Tennessee offense. Look for Jim Knowles to use a similar game plan as he did against Indiana, using cover 4 concepts and 3-hi cover 2 on early downs to limit reliefs and stop the run, before turning up the blitz concepts on passing downs. It should be a big game for Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom, as they can limit the mistakes that Josh Heupel’s Art Briles inspired offense relies upon to generate explosives, such as bad safety angles and missed tackles.

Ohio State 28 Tennessee 19

Tony Gerdeman

Tennessee is a much different team on the road, scoring just 19 points per game in road trips to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia. They went 1-2 in those game and struggled offensively throughout. They were solid on the road at Vanderbilt to end the season, but that’s not exactly a road environment for the Vols. Will Howard is healthy, he’s normally an accurate passer, and Tennessee’s pass defense is not great — provided the offensive line holds up. I don’t really care how well Ohio State runs the ball, but if the offensive line gives him time to throw, the Buckeyes will win.

The rotation on the interior is a concern this late in the season, but Chip Kelly and Ryan Day should know to scheme around it. Will Howard needs to be part of the running game if they want to try to make something happen there. Misdirection, options, stuff like that will help. Tempo has been very effective against Tennessee. As for the OSU defense, they need to tackle as well as they have all year. If they do that, then they’ll be fine. But that’s at all three levels — behind the line of scrimmage with Nico Iamaleava, at the line of scrimmage with Dylan Sampson, and downfield in one-on-one situations because of UT’s wide splits. Everybody needs to tackle. If they do, they’ll win.

Ohio State 24 Tennessee 17

Marc Givler

If Ohio State comes out with the same offensive game plan that it did against Michigan, it’s going to be a short post-season for the Buckeyes. But that would seem extremely unlikely after public admissions that it was the wrong way to go.

Stop worrying about “toughness”, nobody is going to change their mind about that because nobody admits they are wrong anymore. The narrative has been set and that’s fine, play to your strengths.

Despite the cold weather, I think the Buckeyes will come out and throw it with the short and intermediate game to help setup the run. The Vols front is formidable and if the latest iteration of this offensive line can win its fair share of battles, that should be enough for Ohio State to win a physical and low-scoring game.

Ohio State 20 Tennessee 17

Chip Minnich

Unfortunately for Ohio State fans, Michigan provided a simple and straightforward blueprint to other college football teams with their 13-10 win over Ohio State on November 30th ~ Run the ball, control the clock, maximize field position into scoring opportunities.  Ironically, it was something that I presume Coach Tressel would have agreed upon as a winning formula.

Here are the two things that I believe will mean the difference from the last time the Buckeyes took the field in Ohio Stadium on November 30th to their first College Football Playoff game on December 21st:

1)  Did the Ohio State coaching staff, especially the offensive coaches, learn from their horrible game plan and mistakes from the Michigan game?

2)  Will the cold weather have an impact?

I believe the answer to the first question is yes.  The reports of the intense team meeting that laid out all of the frustrations has the team prepared to do whatever they can to move the ball on a talented Tennessee defensive team.  While I do not expect Ohio State to play flawlessly on offense, I do expect the Buckeyes to have their share of success against the Volunteers.  And while both teams have to play in the cold, I do believe that Ohio State is better prepared for it psychologically than Tennessee; the visions of players huddled around heated benches when the temperatures were in the mid 50s have me thinking that the Buckeyes will be able to focus better on the task at hand.  I have it…..

Ohio State 21 Tennessee 17

Kevin Noon

Which is going to be higher, the score of the winning team or the temperature at opening kickoff? Either way, it is going to be cold, and I believe it is going to be a low scoring game. By saying that, I have just insured that it won’t be a low scoring game and my bet on the under will never come home.

Will Howard is going to be the X-Factor in this game. It won’t all be on Will himself, but it will be on the ability for the line to protect him and the receivers to get open against a secondary that doesn’t get the same mentions of the defensive line.

If Howard plays at/above his ability, the Buckeyes should be in great shape, but the Vols have the talent to make this a challenge.

Even if Will plays a marginal game, the Buckeyes have a chance with a defense that has played lights out down the stretch. But even with that, it will be on the defense to not allow the Vols to extend drives and keep the Ohio State offense on the sidelines.

A low scoring game is not exactly what the Buckeyes want, a one-possession game is just one possession away from getting away from you, but this game really feels like it is going to be close.

In the end, Ohio State was built for this moment. Not playing in the ice box but winning a championship caliber game. Survive and advance. 

Ohio State 24 Tennessee 13

Tom Orr

Tennessee and Ohio State are two of the best defenses in the nation statistically. The Buckeyes have allowed the fewest 40-yard plays of any team in the nation (2), while Tennessee is tied for second-fewest (3). The Buckeyes are the best in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.9 points per game, while Tennessee is fourth at 13.9. 

This should be a fairly low-scoring game, which is likely to come down to which team makes The One Big Mistake. Fortunately, or unfortunately, both teams have shown that they are capable of doing just that. Will Howard threw a crucial interception early in the Michigan game which handed the Wolverines the only touchdown they would score all day in a 13-10 shocker over the Buckeyes. Nico Iamaleava (E-uh-mah-lee-ahh-vuh) is an immensely talented young quarterback who has a penchant for trying to do too much. Sometimes this means extending plays with his legs to hit a big pass downfield or running for a big gain. Sometimes this means throwing late, across his body, over the middle into double coverage, or running around, waving the ball in the air for defenders to knock free. 

Ohio State would be well-served to get out to an early lead, which will not only keep the crowd in the game, but also force Tennessee to get away from what they would love to do, pounding RB Dylan Sampson into the line 30 times. If the Buckeyes can spend the game playing from ahead, they will have a chance to pull away when Iamaleava tries to do too much and turns the ball over. If they’re playing from behind, Tennessee will be content to hand the ball to Sampson, run the clock, and put all of the pressure on the Buckeyes. 

OSU should be able to find some space for its talented receiving corps against what should be a slightly overmatched Tennessee secondary. Jermod McCoy (no. 3) is very good, but there is a dropoff after him, and the Buckeyes’ talented trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate will present mismatches that the Volunteers will have to try to overcome through their pass rush. James Pearce (No. 27) is a fantastic pass rusher off the edge, and Omarr Norman-Lott (No. 51) will be a threat inside. If the Ohio State offensive line gets killed, the Buckeyes are going to have an early start to the offseason. If they play just okay, they should win and get a chance for revenge against Oregon. If the line is even slightly better than average, the Buckeyes’ talent advantage in the skill positions could allow them to pull away. 

Expect a game that’s close, low-scoring, and incredibly exciting for the full 60 minutes.

Ohio State 21 Tennessee 13