Three Shots: Tennessee

I don’t want to talk about the last time around, it was my worst showing in three shots but in fairness, it was Ohio State’s worst showing in many, many years.

I hesitate to even rehash my picks because everyone is supposed to have moved on, but for the sake of continuity, let’s just run through it quickly and get to the new part of the piece, my picks for the upcoming CFP game against Tennessee.

last time out

Free Throw: TreVeyon Henderson will score a touchdown and 75+ yards

Status: Miss

No touchdown, 21 yards, Buckeyes offensive collapse all together.

What could have been.

I felt this one was not out of the realm of possibility, but what do I know.

Three Pointer: Ohio State will sack Michigan quarterbacks (and wildcat QBs) four or more times

Status: Miss

I was led to believe that the Michigan offensive line was a little bit leaky and for every that the Ohio State defense did well, getting to the quarterback was not one of them.

Then again, Michigan attempted 16 passes and ran the ball 42 times. It is difficult to sack the quarterback when he is just handing it off.

This was more a fail on my part than the first one, not thinking it through. I just felt that the Buckeyes would shut down the run and force Michigan to throw the ball.

Full Court: Ohio State will score 40+ points and hold Michigan to fewer than 14 points

Status: Miss

Do I get half credit? Ohio State did hold Michigan to fewer than 14 points.

Ohio State would have needed 12 more quarters to break 40 however, and that is a problem.

Let’s just move on amd make some intelligent predictions.

Current Score: 12

free throw

Ohio State will hold Dylan Sampson to fewer than 100 rushing yards

Sampson has been held sub-100 yards twice this season and once was because of a rout and only getting 11 carries (UTEP).

The other game was against Oklahoma, where Sampson averaged just 3.8 YPC.

The Sooners are the only top-20 rush defense that the Vols have faced this season, and while the Vols won the game, the Sooners won this skirmish.

Ohio State has the No. 7 rush defense in the nation, and at that point, you are just splitting hairs in terms of yards allowed (Ohio State has allowed six yards fewer a game than the Sooners).

But we are talking about yards here, and every little bit helps, if the Buckeyes play up to their ability.

Just for full disclosure, the Sooners have allowed just eight rushing touchdowns on the year, where the Buckeyes have allowed nine. Either way, both teams are about as stingy as it gets with the rush defense.

three pointer

Ohio State will throw for three passing touchdowns with one not going to either Jeremiah Smith or Emeka Egbuka

Nobody has thrown for three touchdowns in a game against Tennessee this season. Even Georgia was held to just two, a pair of passes from Carson Beck to tight end Oscar Delp.

So I really could have just left this as hitting three touchdown passes and have met the criteria for a three-point pick.

Ohio State has not thrown for three touchdowns since the Purdue game and Will Howard has met/broken the three touchdown mark four times this season (PUR, NEB, IOWA, AKR).

I think it is pretty safe to say that someone not named Jeremiah Smith or Emeka Egbuka will have to catch at least one of them. The Vols are going to sell out as much as possible on locking up the two, but there is only so much you can do and not have a light box.

I have talked to Vols fans who believe that the team can just show up and put nobody in the box and stop the run, that is just unrealistic.

But if Ohio State can’t force Tennessee to respect the run (this DOES NOT mean running it up the middle on 1st and 2nd downs, come hell or high water) then it becomes easier to put more people in coverage to take the throw game away from the Buckeyes.

So be it Carnell Tate or Gee Scott Jr. or Brandon Inniss or someone else, the Buckeyes will need to spread the ball around.

full court

Ohio State will shut Tennessee out

Just in case some Tennessee fans are reading this and are ready to go to the UT boards and call this bulletin board material, hear me out.

The purpose of the full court shot is to pick something that is highly unlikely to happen, but that there is at least a bit of plausibility to it coming in.

Now that I have that out of the way, I don’t need another Notre Dame situation on my hands.

You have heard me hammer that the Vols scoring average is propped up by its four non-league games and that if you take those games out of the equation, the Vols are scoring 25.0 PPG this season (over eight games).

None of those points were scored in what I would call a cold weather environment. Yes, it was 41 degrees at kickoff in Nashville for the Vanderbilt game. It is going to be at least 20 degrees colder.

“But both teams have to play in that” and yes, that is correct. So Ohio State’s offense (29.9 PPG in conference games) may be a little less efficient as well. But I am talking about what Tennessee’s offense may be able to do.

Dylan Sampson is a tremendous safety net for the Vols and will likely make this prediction not come home, but if the Buckeyes are able to slow him down, what then?

Nico Iamaleava has had three games with no touchdowns thrown (Will Howard has had zero) and two of those games were ones where the Vols lost the final outcome. If Sampson gets stopped (and that is a large IF, again, no bulletin board material) and Nico is off, what then?

The Vols were last shutout in 2017 against Georgia.

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