In Order To Win: Offense

As we move further into the College Football Playoffs, I have added a few pieces to my content rotation and as long as the Buckeyes are winning, let’s keep doing them.

Winning football games is not an easy task, for every winner there is a loser and there will be 11 disappointed teams and only one happy team at the end of this four-round playoff system.

The Buckeyes took care of their first step, dispatching the Volunteers of Tennessee back to Rocky Top but the stakes get higher as the Buckeyes move west and on to play the No. 1 seed, the Ducks of Oregon.

As you know, Ohio State played the Ducks almost to a draw last time out, losing a 32-31 heartbreaker in Eugene (Ore.). Now the scene heads South down Interstate 5 to Southern California and the Rose Bowl.

Let’s start with the offense, what do the Buckeyes need to do to win this game other than the obvious task of outscoring the Ducks? Let’s look at a few things.

Will Howard needs to throw for three touchdowns & no more than one interception

This sounds pretty simple and obvious on the surface level, and we are not trying to find the vaguest items. Sometimes Plan A is Plan A for a reason.

Howard has thrown for three or more touchdowns in five games and in all five of those games, Howard’s interception total has been one or zero, so this mission has been accomplished before.

The issue is, Ohio State has not been able to do it against a top 20 pass defense like Oregon. But even with that, Howard threw it for two scores and zero interceptions, so it is not out of the realm of possibility.

Yes, the 21 points is a good thing, and the low (to none) number of interceptions means that Howard should be sharp. We are all going to focus on the Ohio State offensive line but let’s be honest, the most important play for Ohio State’s chances in this game is Howard and a sharp Howard gives the Buckeyes a strong chance of pulling this one off.

Ohio State needs to run the ball for 4.5 yards per carry

The Buckeyes are running the ball on the season for 5.0 YPC, but that adds three non-conference teams and a handful of teams that are just not very good against the run.

Ohio State came up a little short of that number last time out, just hitting 4.3 YPC, but really was on the right path.

Why did I pick 4.5? There is a belief that 4.4 YPC is some sort of magic number, and I just like numbers that are a little more round like fives.

The Buckeyes were able to hit 4.7 YPC against Tennessee and that seemed to work fine, going against a then top 10 run defense. Four touchdowns didn’t hurt either for Ohio State’s final tally.

That number is not always going to get you home, Penn State, Boise State and Purdue (yes, Purdue) all ran for better than 4.5 YPC, but if Ohio State is able to maintain that number, it means that the offense is working and even if it is not paying off via the run, it will be there via the pass.

Team	Carries	Yards	Average
Akron	33	170	5.2
Western Mich.	39	273	7.0
Marshall	31	280	9.0
Michigan State	35	185	5.3
Iowa	40	203	5.1
Oregon	33	141	4.3
Nebraska	31	64	2.1
Penn State	40	176	4.4
Purdue	35	173	4.9
Northwestern	33	173	5.2
Indiana	29	115	4.0
Michigan	25	77	3.1
Tennessee	33	156	4.7

Target Jeremiah Smith 10 times

This one just sounds good, but how often does a player get targeted 10 times?

Smith was targeted 13 times against Oregon last time out and Emeka Egbuka was targeted 10 times, so apparently it does happen.

We saw firsthand what happens when you throw it to Jeremiah Smith and that answer is ‘good things’.

The Oregon secondary is better than the Tennessee secondary and Oregon has the benefit of going against Jeremiah Smith once before and know how good he is. But they also know how good Emeka Egbuka is, and that creates a situation. How do you load up the box and have two safeties to help along with two corners against the top two Ohio State receivers. Sure, you can put seven in the box, four on those two guys, but guess what, Carnell Tate is going to win every single zero-on-one match-up he faces. So, now you put one on Tate, that puts six in the box, and then what?

Of course, Dan Lanning is not afraid to put 12 players out there.

Go 50-percent or better on third down

Is this one easier said than done?

Ohio State was 4-12 on third down in the last meeting of this game while the Ducks went 6-14.

Ohio State was 4-9 on third against the Vols but in fairness, Ohio State was scoring on 1^st and 2^nd downs and the third downs really only happened on stalled drives.

It would be best if Ohio State had a smaller number when it came to third down if it resulted in scoring, but a small number also could indicate stalled drives where a prolonged drive could result in four or five third down attempts.

But the Buckeyes must keep the ball moving, this game really feels like it could be a track meet and efficiency will mean everything.

Finish trips into the red zone with touchdowns

When Ohio State and Oregon played each other the last time, Ohio State was a perfect 5-5 in the red zone, but one of those drives ended in a field goal rather than a touchdown.

As we know, the game was decided by one point, so those missing four points would have meant the world.

Ohio State is 87-percent in the RZ when it comes to scoring points and the number falls to 77-percent when it comes to scoring touchdowns.

The Buckeyes have seven empty possessions in the RZ this season, and the margin in this game is going to be too close for any of those to happen. But with Ohio State not feeling as confident in its field goal attempts, there will be even more emphasis on getting seven versus three, especially against a team that puts up points in bunches.

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