Staff Picks: Will Buckeyes Get Revenge in Pasadena?

Ohio State has wanted another chance to prove itself against Oregon since the one-point loss in Eugene back in October. On New Year’s Day that chance finally arrives. Will the Buckeyes get revenge and move on to the CFP Semifinals or will Oregon’s undefeated season continue?

Ross Fulton

Ohio State brings a revamp defense to its rematch with Oregon. Many of the changes were long needed and brought to a head by the Buckeyes’ one-point road loss to the Ducks–more use of 3-hi safety looks, more cover 4, more matching routes, spiking the defensive ends inside to spill the football so that second level defenders can sit on RPOs, and playing Caleb Downs closer to the line of scrimmage. All these changes are geared for Ohio State to have a better defensive showing against Oregon. Even without those changes, the Buckeyes largely shut down the Ducks’ base wide zone run game in October. It was run/pass conflict and biting on double moves that allowed Oregon to create explosive plays. Ohio State needs to have their cleats in the ground ready for tempo and play from there. 

Offensively, the Buckeyes need to continue to do what they did against Tennessee. Even prior to the offensive line injuries, Chip Kelly was too reliant on inside zone and duo against the Ducks’ odd front in October. Ohio State needs to take a page from Penn State and get the football outside in the run game with counter trey, outside zone, and power read. Oregon runs a bunch of split safety variations in the secondary but this leads to busted coverages. Ohio State needs to again attack the Ducks’ coverages down the seam and on deep corner and sail routes with JJ Smith and Emeka Egbuka. And the Buckeyes need to be on alert for Dan Lanning trick plays.

Ohio State 31 Oregon 25

Tony Gerdeman

For me, this game comes down to which defensive line shows up for Oregon. If it’s the defensive line that dominated Washington, then look out. If it’s the defensive line that didn’t show up against Penn State, then goodnight Ducks.

Unfortunately for Oregon, everybody’s defensive line looks great against Washington. Oregon hasn’t played as well as they did in that first game before or after, so what does that mean for this game? I’m of the belief that Ohio State’s defensive game plan was the biggest problem overall for the Buckeyes the last time.

But Oregon knows that as well. The Ducks are going to get their yards, but will they finish in the red zone? I think this is a better Ohio State defense than the one that played earlier, but they still have to cover and tackle a very talented and explosive offense. Will Howard and Denzel Burke want this one badly, and they have the power to make it happen. But watch out for Ferguson again.

Ohio State 34 Oregon 24

Marc Givler

I’ve agonized about this pick all week, which is something that I very rarely do. There are so many things about the first matchup, combined with what Ohio State did to Tennessee, that make me think the Buckeyes are going to CFP Semi’s.

But Oregon will have Jordan Burch in this one and Ohio State will be down its two best offensive linemen and it’s tough to predict how that will change things up front, but it sure doesn’t seem like great news for the Buckeyes.

That being said, Dillon Gabriel was nearly perfect the first time around and the Ducks created several explosive plays against an Ohio State defense that hasn’t been gashed like that before or after that game. Ohio State has made several changes for the better to its defense since that wake up call in Eugene as well.

I think we’re in for another instant classic and this time Ohio State finds a way to do enough in the fourth quarter to get the W.

Ohio State 28 Oregon 27

Chip Minnich

The prevailing sentiment after the dominating performance by Ohio State versus Tennessee was “Where has THAT team been all year?!?”.  Ohio State put it all together, in front of a national television audience, and has tremendous momentum heading into the second round of The College Football Playoff.

While I truly believe that Ryan Day and Chip Kelly have embraced the realities of optimizing their offensive skill players’ respective talents, I am still concerned about what happened the last time Ohio State faced Oregon, with Dillon Gabriel seemingly having all day to throw, picking apart the Ohio State secondary.  Yes, I will acknowledge that the Ohio State defense has improved since that game in October, but I question how many potent offensive teams the Buckeyes have faced since that time – Indiana, on November 23rd?

The keys for Ohio State will be not only pressuring Dillon Gabriel, but preventing him from keeping drives alive on scrambles on obvious passing downs.  I think this is going to be another instant classic, and Ohio State is going to push Oregon to the brink.  I agonize as I write this, as I truly hope to be wrong, but I believe Oregon will have enough offensively to outlast Ohio State and move onto the next round.  I have it…

Oregon 31 Ohio State 28

Kevin Noon

The Rose Bowl, Big Ten and sorta Pac-12, just like it should be. 

Or, you could look at it the other way, this should be a game in the final round of the College Football Playoff, arguably the best two teams in the field, seeding be damned. 

These two teams played in October in a classic where the Ducks took down the Bucks by a single point in Eugene (Ore.). 

This time around, we are still on the West Coast, but there will be many more Ohio State fans in the doors. 

And Ohio State is a different team than the one that played the last time around. Yes, this team still has the scabs and scars from the Michigan loss but also seems to have found a thing or two out about itself with the win over Tennessee. 

Oregon on the other hand has been rolling over most of its opponents but had a stinker against Wisconsin and didn’t exactly keep Penn State completely in check.

Which team is going to get the best quarterback play? And that doesn’t mean who will have the prettiest play in the game, but who will play the best within the ask of the offense?

Will Howard may be the best 80-percent passing quarterback in the nation who still receives a ton of criticism for not being this, or that. 

Can Jordan James run the way that he did this time around against the Ohio State defense? He always seems to be falling forward and while he has not hit a bunch of home runs, he drives a lot of runs in. 

I expect a high scoring game, which means the team that can force the most service breaks is going to win this game. Give me the Ohio State defense. While some of the “record” type of numbers will be pressed this time around, I think the defense is playing at a level that can get this team over the hump. 

Ohio State 38, Oregon 31

Tom Orr

This is the longest I have ever procrastinated on submitting a score prediction. Normally, I feel like I’ve got a good grasp on the game by this point, but with as inconsistent as Oregon has been during the five games we’ve watched for various shows this season, which Ducks team is going to show up? 

When it doubt, ask yourself which unit on the field is the weakest. The Ohio State offense, Ohio State defense, and Oregon offense are all among the nation’s best in almost every category. Oregon’s defense is just pretty good. They’re not bad, but they’re not great, either. They’re just… fine. Can the Ducks make up for that with their patented brand of special teams chicanery? Maybe. But probably not. 

Rematches tend to be lower-scoring than the first game, and it’s hard to beat a team twice in one season. 

Ohio State 28 Oregon 24