Three Shots: Rose Bowl

The game must almost be here because it is time for three shots. I honestly felt pretty good about two of my three picks last week(ish) against Tennessee but ended up only getting one to come home, but that is fine. If I have learned anything from this series, it is tough to make bold predictions that come to be.

Sure, I could take the easy way out and try and run up the score, but how are you going to make the playoff by playing nobody (ask Texas).

No, if you are going to take the time to read this, I am going to take the time to be thoughtful and put some effort into these.

They aren’t always going to be smooth and there will be weeks where I may go 0/3, but as long as the Buckeyes keep playing, I am going to keep picking.

I went 1/3 when Ohio State played the Ducks last time, and I have to do better. You need to be playing your best ball come January, and let’s ring in the New Year with some good picks and a Buckeye win.

But let’s check out how I did last week before we get started.

last time out

Free Throw: Ohio State will hold Dylan Sampson to fewer than 100 rushing yards

Status: Hit

For what it is worth, I didn’t know about Sampson’s hamstring issue and I never assume any player is going to be degraded unless their status says out.

Sampson did start the game and had two carries for six yards, well below the 100-yard threshold.

The Buckeyes still saw the Vols break into the 150-yard mark for running the ball, much of that behind the esacapability of Nico Iamaleava, but the running game never was a real threat, at least to the point that some Vols fans would have liked to see.

Would Sampson have been able to be a difference maker if he was 70-percent in the game? It surely would have been more than six yards, but the Vols just seemed to be doomed from the outset of that game.

Three Pointer: Ohio State will throw for three passing touchdowns with one not going to either Jeremiah Smith or Emeka Egbuka

Status: Miss

I was told this one was a longshot but I knew that Will Howard was going to bounce back, to a certain degree.

I didn’t know that Ohio State was going to keep Howard upright for the entire game with no sacks, but I knew that it would be bombs away for the offense and we saw a pair of long passing scores to Jeremiah Smith.

How close was I to hitting this one?

Ohio State’s second offensive drive, if Howard leads Emeka Egbuka just a little bit more, that is a walk-in touchdown rather than being a Quinshon Judkins rushing touchdown two plays later.

It is a game of inches.

Full Court: Ohio State will shut out Tennessee

Status: Miss

It felt like a shutout, and was for a good portion of the game.

The Vols didn’t know what hit them in the first quarter with the Buckeyes putting up 21 points in 12 minutes. The Vols could only produce three-and-outs and the rout was on.

We can only wonder what would have happened if the Buckeyes would have scored on their fourth drive of the game, rather than a oh-so-close interception (and missed pass interference).

Would Tennessee have cratered even more and just retreated to their heated benches, praying for the game to come to and end quickly?

This was a longshot of all longshot picks, I could have never predicted the 42-17 outcome, but sometimes you have to throw five bucks on the darkhorse. How many tickets to we see on Twitter/X of people taking the safe route?

Exactly.

Current Score: 13

the rose bowl

free throw

Will Howard throws for 327+ yards versus Oregon

Why 327? Because he threw for 326 in the first meeting of these two teams and everyone needs to keep moving forward, right?

Ohio State could lose this game with 327+ passing yards and win this game with fewer, this is just an arbitrary number in the stat book, but Will Howard really bounced back from the Michigan debacle and Oregon showed a lot of vulnerability against Penn State.

If the Buckeyes play a similar style of offense (nobody said the exact same gameplan, you have to tailor things for your foe) as they did against Tennessee, it will be interesting to see how the Oregon defense fares.

Penn State could not stay out of its own way long enough to capitalize, namely spotting the Ducks a ton of points.

Did Oregon look past the Big Ten Championship Game? I doubt it, winning a league title in year one as a new member means a lot. The Buckeyes are going to have their full attention as many are saying this is going to be the game of the playoffs.

three pointer

Ohio State records at least two sacks and forces one turnover

Ohio State did not record a single sack and did not force a single turnover last time out.

As I have said in other pieces, the Ducks don’t give up sacks, at least anymore. After giving up seven in the first two games, that number has gone way down.

I also said in a piece earlier this week that if the Buckeyes record a sack, they win. The two games with no sacks, no wins.

So what is different this time? Location, location, location.

This is not going to be a home game for Ohio State. PDX-LAX flights are much cheaper than flights from Columbus, Cleveland or wherever fans are coming from. But I also know that Ohio State fans travel like Tennessee fans.

The fans aren’t going to record the sacks though, that is up to Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau. Both are playing with so much confidence and it seems as if the defense is playing a couple of levels above where it was in Eugene (Ore.) in mid-October, the Buckeyes are due for some success in this category.

As for turnovers, that is a tough nut to crack as well. The Ducks have thrown six picks and have lost five fumbles. Dylan Gabriel has thrown one interception over his last five games. So maybe he is due? He is not just making safe throws and the way to get him to turn it over is to pressure him (see what I am doing here?)

I would call this a long three-point attempt, but it is doable.