IRVING, Texas – Over the last several days I have tried to lay out a picture of how I see this game shaping up and that will all culminate with my game prediction. Any way you slice it though, this match-up will be pitting two of the most talented rosters in the College Football Playoffs against one another.
Sportsbooks across the nation and overseas have a vested interest in this game as well as sports betting because legal in more states. Interest in college football is at an all-time high and this College Football Playoff has delivered a slew of brand name matchups, even if few games have been competitive.
The Buckeyes remain a 6-point favorite over Texas in the upcoming Cotton Bowl against Texas according to FanDuel.
This is after Ohio State covered lines of 2.5 points against Oregon (W, 41-21) and seven points against Tennessee (42-17). Three of the four teams have covered in both games, Texas being the only team to not cover (vs. Arizona State).
According to John Ewing of Bet MGM, when it comes Ohio State being a six-point favorite (after opening as a 4.5-point favorite) 73-percent of the bets and 72-percent of the money are on Ohio State.
For those who are new to gambling or indifferent, that means that Ohio State must score seven more points than Texas for the bet to win. Or look at it this way, you can start the score at 6-0 Texas at opening kickoff, with Texas getting six points according to oddsmakers.
As mentioned earlier, the line moves as the books look to try and draw action on both sides of the bet, trying to limit liability on one side or the other.
Ewing added where most of the money came in, in relation to where the line was at. This is all with 75-percent of the bets on Ohio State to cover the line, be it at 4.5-points or higher.
Ohio State -4.5: 1.1% of bets
Ohio State -5.5: 8.4%
Ohio State -6: 21.5%
Ohio State -6.5: 43.8%
Another popular bet is “the total” or also known as the “under/over”. In short, this is just taking the score of both teams, adding them up and seeing where that number falls in relationship to the total. The total opened at 54.5 points per BetMGM and has slipped a point down to 53.5. So, if you think that the final score will be 35-21, that total would be 56 points, which comes in over the 53.5 points.
Bettors don’t feel that it is going to be that kind of high scoring game, 69-percent of the bets and 64-percent of the money are on the under, meaning that the total would need to come in at 53 points.
Ohio State’s previous two games saw the total come in at 62 and 59 points respectively, the over hitting in both games. The belief is that the Texas defense will be able to slow down the Ohio State offense, but if the Texas offense is able to put points on the board, the total could be in question quickly.
Specific bets on players have been disallowed in the state of Ohio. Reports of random people on social media, harassing Ohio State players via private messaging and other messages became too much. But “player props” are allowed in other states, including Michigan and West Virginia.
Player Props
Ewing also released the most bet player props on BetMGM via social media.
It should come as no surprise that Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith topped the list with three of the top five props, being led by Smith as an anytime TD scorer.
This one is as simple as it sounds. If Smith scores a touchdown in the game, either receiving or rushing, that ticket cashes. The odds on that are minus-125, meaning that a bettor would have to wager 125-dollars to win 100 dollars. Smaller bettor? You can move the decimal point, and it would be 12.5-dolars for 10 dollars. Or any variation of that.
Smith has scored touchdowns in 11 of Ohio State’s 14 games.
The next most popular bet is Jeremiah Smith as the first to score a touchdown. Again, a simple bet, if Smith is responsible for the first touchdown, you win. If there is a field goal prior? That doesn’t matter, this is just about touchdowns.
The odds here are plus-500, meaning a 100-dollar bet would cash for 500-dollars, and so on.
Smith has been the first TD scorer (in the game, not just for Ohio State in three games this season, Akron, Tennessee and Oregon (Rose Bowl). So, with Smith accomplishing this in the most recent pair of games, can he make it three-in-a-row?
We move away from Smith for a minute and talk about Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson for the next two, and while we know that Henderson is a talented pass-catcher, can he break 22.5 receiving yards? The popular bet is the over.
Yes, you can’t have a half yard in the stat column, but this makes it simple, if Henderson has 22 receiving yards, he misses this mark. He racks up 23 yards, then it is a hit.
Surprisingly, Henderson has only broken that mark just three times this season with the Purdue, Michigan and Tennessee games. Only the Tennessee game took place after Ohio State’s offensive rebirth. With so much attention being paid to Smith and Emeka Egbuka, could Henderson’s receiving chops be a difference maker in this game?
Sticking with Henderson, the fourth bet is under 47.5 rushing yards.
Texas is No. 13 in the nation against the run, one of the top teams in the nation. But Arizona State moved the ball against the Horns, rushing for 214 yards in the Peach Bowl with Cam Skattebo going for 143 yards.
Henderson only needs to run for 1/3 of that total for the bet to come home. Henderson has rushed for more than 47.5 yards in 12 games this season.
And finally, we go back to Jeremiah Smith and 86.5 receiving yards. The popular bet is the over.
Texas has the reigning Thorpe Award winner, presented to the nation’s top defensive back, Jahdae Barron. As a team, Texas is No. 2 in pass efficiency defense and No. 3 in passing yards allowed. On the other end, Ohio State has thrown for more than 300-yards in its past two games and Smith has been a focal point of the offense.
Smith has broken 87 yards in eight games this season, including the past two games.
So, what does it all mean?
I have a couple of bets in on this game, I am not a big bettor by any stretch of the imagination, but it does make the game interesting.
What am I in on?
This is for recreational purposes only; I am far from being a sharp.
Give me the following:
Ohio State to cover giving six points.
Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown scorer.
Ohio State minus-3.5-points first half spread.
Will Howard over 275 passing yards.
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