Staff Picks: Buckeyes Face Longhorns in Cotton Bowl

Ohio State and Texas will draw plenty of eyeballs on Friday night in the Cotton Bowl showdown in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Will the Buckeyes win the ‘Ewers Bowl’ and advance to the national championship?

Ross Fulton

Jim Knowles’ remade defense is again a good fit for Texas. The Longhorns again feature wide zone, protected by a bevy of reliefs and different screens. Ohio State will again want to force the football to spill from its 3-high structure, allowing the Buckeyes to sit on reliefs and have Caleb Downs clean up at the second level. Look for Ohio State to force Texas into passing downs, putting Quinn Ewers in an uncomfortable situation where he has to pick through coverage.

Defensively, Texas has been successful this season playing a straightforward, zone heavy defense that mixes cover 3 and cover 4. Look for Ryan Day and Chip Kelly to again open by attacking with the passing game, as Day has a lot of answers for those coverages, before turning to a counter-heavy run game. The Buckeyes will likely again use a heavy amount of 12 personnel and motion to move to JJ Smith and Emeka Egbuka around, targeting split safety coverage with seam routes and cover 3 with sail and Y-over concepts.

Ohio State 31 Texas 17

Tony Gerdeman

Texas has struggled to run the ball against good run defenses this season. They are facing a good run defense on Friday so I’m not exactly expecting the ground game to be an area of success for the Longhorns. Quarterback Quinn Ewers makes questionable throws regardless of how the running game is going, so there’s no reason to suspect that will change on Friday. Receiver Mathew Golden is UT’s biggest threat through the air, but tight end Gunnar Helm can be a pain.

The Buckeyes have done well against talented tight ends this year, and Helm is as prolific as anybody they’ve faced. Basically everything that Texas does well is what Ohio State has excelled at stopping. On the other side of the ball, this will be OSU’s stiffest test of the postseason. The Buckeyes have refreshed their running game with more counters and gap runs, which is what the offensive linemen have been itching to employ. Texas will run a lot of zone and the expectations are that they’ll have a one-high guy trying to limit the deep shots.

If Will Howard remains patient and has time, he’ll be fine. But he can’t try to create windows that aren’t there. He’s been solid at checkdowns this year. You never go broke taking a profit. This isn’t going to be nearly as easy as the previous two, but there will be enough points to get it done.

Ohio State 28 Texas 17

Marc Givler

Ohio State can’t obliterate another playoff opponent, right? RIGHT? The Buckeyes have ended the past two games before they seemingly even got going. I expect things to be different against Texas.

The Longhorns, in my opinion, have more of the ingredients needed to beat Ohio State than any team remaining in the playoffs. Good QB play, a very strong defensive front seven, a talented offensive line, and the ability to create explosive plays on offense and big plays on defense.

But this Ohio State team just seems so locked in. I think the Buckeyes can win the line of scrimmage defensively while simultaneously forcing Ewers to read coverage for most of the game with their zone looks.

Are the Buckeyes prepared enough for a 12-round fight? Is Texas ready for the best team it has faced all season after playing two major underdogs to get to this point? Big questions there for each team.

Both teams create some fireworks, but Ohio State creates more of them.

Ohio State 31 Texas 24

Chip Minnich

The Cotton Bowl match-up versus Texas is going to offer Ohio State fans and the collective college football world an answer to a question that is worthwhile asking – Can Ohio State keep up the breakneck offensive pace that they have displayed in their first two College Football Playoff games?  My belief is the answer is going to be no.

Texas is coming off a closer than expected 39-31 win over Arizona State in double overtime.  Even with this tense Longhorns win, Ohio State fans should not look at this Texas team as a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.

Former Buckeye Quinn Ewers is quite capable of distributing the ball to a variety of receivers, such as WR Matthew Golden and TE Gunnar Helm.  RB Quintrevion Wisner struggled to gain many yards versus the Sun Devils, but is also a viable option as a receiver out of the backfield.

The key for Ohio State will be how the Ohio State offensive line handles a talented Texas defensive front that often made life miserable for Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt (3 sacks, 1 interception) and Sun Devils RB Cam Skattebo.  I completely agree with Tom Orr that both players were probably in dire need of ice baths and an abundance of aspirin following the game against Texas.

Look for this game to have its moments of back and forth, so fear not Ohio State fans – this game will go into the 4th quarter, as it should, as Texas is one of the most talented teams in the nation.  Ohio State will have their struggles at times, but I like the Buckeyes to pull away late in the 4th quarter.  I have it…

Ohio State 31 Texas 21

Kevin Noon

I think most Ohio State fans expected to be here going into the season, but those views changed dramatically after the loss to Michigan. I do ask the question though; would Ohio State have released the hounds to the extent that it has without the Michigan loss?

None of that is relevant now, this is about the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns.

Do we fall into the trap of recency bias and judge Texas on its last two games and ignore the previous 13 games of the season? Do we do the same with Ohio State? Both teams had moments of looking good and not-so-good prior to the last eight quarters of football.

Ohio State is not going to sneak Jeremiah Smith up on Texas, but Ohio State was not going to be able to do that against Oregon and Smith absolutely went wild on the Ducks.

Texas has the unique position of rolling the Thorpe Award winner at cornerback but if the Horns believe that one player really is going to win more than lose more against Smith, proceed at your own peril.

Texas is a little better against the pass than the run, but I don’t see any quarterbacks on the Texas schedule that have been as consistent as Will Howard.

Ohio State is going to score its points, so this comes down to what Texas can do on offense. The questions about the health of the UT offensive line are a huge scarlet flag to me though, and I think when this game gets into “winning time” that the Horns won’t be able to lean on the line and chew up clock with the running game.

Advantage Buckeyes. Game, Set, Match Buckeyes. 

Ohio State 35 Texas 24

Tom Orr

When in doubt, ask which of the four major units on the field is the weakest. And in a game that features an elite Ohio State offense and defense, and an elite Texas defense, the Longhorns’ offense is pretty clearly the answer.

The Horns have failed to crack 2.0 yards per carry on the ground in two of their last three games, and if they can’t run the ball against the Buckeyes, they’re going to struggle to sustain drives or reach 20 points unless their defense or special teams can create points.

That means the question is whether the Texas defense can hold the Buckeyes to a score in the teens, and in a game that could see the Longhorn defense on the field a lot, that’s going to be a lot to ask.

Ultimately, injuries to the Texas offensive line will likely make a difficult task close to impossible, and the Horns’ defense will put up a good fight before wearing down.

Ohio State 28, Texas 17