In Order To Win: Offense

During Ohio State’s CFP run we have previewed each opponent a little bit differently than we normally do over the course of a regular season. Sure, we are still doing our weekly Tale of the Tape, but we are going a little deeper by talking about what Ohio State needs to do “In Order To Win” each of these games.

I am sure I have used the same cheesy joke each time I set the piece up, obviously things like “Score more than your opponent” are off the table, because that is just too obvious.

But we also are not looking to get so specific that we are spitting into the wind, trying to predict a play or dial in so tight that it is not an easy answer to grasp.

We have had a lot of success in our picks through the last three games and this game, the game against Notre Dame, will be our last for the season as the winner takes home the trophy and the loser of the game gets to play, ‘What If’ for the next 60 years.

Let’s not play ‘What If’, let’s dial in with Ohio State’s offense first and we will follow it up tomorrow with the defense.

Buckeyes need to score at least 29 points

I am going to have to show my work here and I am saying right now that I don’t expect Notre Dame to be able to score 29 points against Ohio State. I just think that getting a little bit better than four touchdowns will show that Ohio State’s offense is working and that the Buckeyes are not playing from a tense position.

But where did the 29 number come from? Over the course of the CFP-era, the winner of the National Championship Game has scored on average 40.8 points per game (as referenced in a story several days ago. I rounded that up to 41 points and then I looked at how many points Notre Dame has allowed in its first three rounds of the playoffs, per game. That number is 17.

41 plus 17 is 58 and divide that by two and you have 29 points.

Notre Dame has only given up 29 or more points just one time this season, to USC in a 49-35 win at the end of the regular season.

So that is a lot of points to allow on Notre Dame’s end of things, but this is the end of the run and if Ohio State is going to be the best team left in the nation, it is going to have to play as such and not allow this to be a 21-17 type of slog.

Ohio State must rush for 145 yards or more as a team

I have no problem giving kudos to the Notre Dame defense for what it has done this season. I don’t see any reason to try and tear down an opponent in order to make the team I am talking about look good.

Anyone who has watched ND this season has seen a team that has had some issues in its run defense, especially when it comes to go against its bigger name opponents.

The loss of Rylie Mills for Notre Dame is a killer, no doubt about it, and ND would be doing better as a defense with Mills rather than without.

The Irish are 41^st in the nation in run defense and while that still only means that ND has allowed 14 rushing scores on the ground, Penn State had three, USC had two as well as Army and Virginia.

I was thinking about making this a total touchdown pick rather than a yardage pick, but it is important for Ohio State to sustain some dries while on offense.

Sure, it would be great to score on the first play of every drive and leave no doubt. That really is not realistic (no matter what the Tennessee and Oregon games may lead you to believe) and running the ball, even as a change-up, is important for the offensive flow of this team.

Notre Dame is a man-to-man pass defense, and it is unlikely we will see Notre Dame try and reinvent itself in less than two weeks, but if the Buckeyes can pop a few big runs and stay ahead of the chains of offense, there is not much chance that Notre Dame can win a shootout with Ohio State.

Hold Notre Dame to two or fewer sacks of Will Howard (or any OSU QB)

This would be considered a one-pointer in my Three Shots series, Ohio State has not given up more than two sacks since the Penn State game, allowing just two to Texas and then a grand total of zero for the previous four games combined.

Notre Dame isn’t among the national leaders in sacks, just 38 on the season, 13 fewer than Ohio State has recorded.

Once again, this is another measuring stick pick from me.

If Ohio State is able to protect Howard, it is a strong indication that the line is holding up and while pass pro and run blocking are not always directly linked, it will mean either the line is holding up, or Notre Dame is sending three and dropping eight, and that will go a long way in determining how Ohio State needs to attack the defense.

Let Jeremiah do his thing

So many times, I have said that Jeremiah Smith needs this or that number of targets or catches but then the Texas game happened, and the Horns were damned sure that Smith was not going to beat them.

I am turning over a new leaf and saying that you need to let Smith do his thing. With Notre Dame being a man defense, it is unlikely that we are going to see three players locking him down, running a triangle and eight defense on the Buckeyes (honestly, that should be the other way around, eight on defense and a triangle around Jeremiah, if we are being more factually correct) then there are plenty of other options.

Ohio State got caught trying to force one in to Smith on the interception and that killed yet another Ohio State drive in a game with so many missed opportunities.

But we also know that momentum is a powerful thing and if Howard and Smith can connect early, it may not matter who or how many are on Smith.

Just don’t try and make something happen that is not there, not early in the game, not from a leading position, just stay within your gameplan and know that Smith will have all of the Irish Eyes on him.

Clean as a whistle

You didn’t think I could make it through a piece without some sort of ‘dad joke’ for a header, did you? Many of you will be too young to remember that “Irish Spring soap would get you clean as a whistle”.

Well, the clean I am talking about here is to eliminate the penalties. Not all of the nine against Ohio State were on the offense but the most costly ones really were.

There is a big difference between 2^nd-and-3 and 2^nd-and-18, and momentary lapses and bad judgment calls lead to that. The Cotton Bowl really didn’t have to be as close as it was, and since the game turned out in the positive, we will forget about the flags much quicker than the heroics by Jack Sawyer in the final minutes of the game.

It is hard to play a completely clean game in terms of penalties, but the goal is to play as clean as possible. It is well documented that Ohio State’s foes don’t get flagged often, to the tune of Ohio State is last in the nation when it comes to its opponents getting penalties called against them.

Regardless of a 9.5-point or 8-point line, games like this one are won and lost in the margins and picking up 60 yards of dumb penalties won’t help the cause.

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