In Order To Win: Defense

We continue our “In Order To Win” series by flipping over to the defense for the Buckeyes. Don’t worry, we will have our member exclusive deep dive known as The Tape of the Tape tomorrow, just consider this a little bit of bonus coverage.

Yesterday we talked about the offense and the need to protect Will Howard, run the ball, remember you have Jeremiah Smith. You know, all football 101.

Defensively, the Buckeyes will be going against a Notre Dame team that has put up a lot of points this season but are games against Purdue, Florida State and Stanford really relevant to games that are being played right now?

Even with the big numbers, Notre Dame’s passing game has been good, not great, for much of the season and more often has been south of good than north of it.

We can get into all of that here in a moment as we go through five things that the Ohio State defense needs to strive to achieve in order to win this game and in winning the game, winning the national championship in a season where Ohio State fans were ready to punt just seven or eight weeks ago.

Limit the run

This is a judgment call, what exactly is limiting the run? Why won’t you give us a yardage number or a scoring number?

I don’t because I can’t.

Yes, I gave an Ohio State rushing number in the offensive piece because that is just easier to do, I know the Ohio State team better and I know what the look of things working is versus not working.

This season Notre Dame has rushed for at least 116 yards in every game of the season and been held under 125 yards in three games (PSU, Louisville and NIU). In all three of those games, Notre Dame scored two touchdowns.

Notre Dame has been held out of the end zone on the ground just one time, against Georgia in the CFP, but the Fighting Irish rushed for 154 yards in that game.

So, if I were forced to lay out some numbers, just for the sake of argument, how about this, hold Notre Dame to 3.5 YPC or lower and one rushing touchdown or fewer.

Because let’s be honest, it is going to be very difficult for Notre Dame to win this game as a pass-first, pass-second type of team against the Ohio State defense.

Force Notre Dame to attempt 30-plus passes

This one rides along with the previous one. Notre Dame has attempted 30 or more passes in seven of 15 games so far this season.

It seems unlikely that Notre Dame will be able to throw it 30 times and run it 40 times, with total plays being down somewhat (even with Notre Dame averaging 63.7 offensive plays per game during the playoffs).

Riley Leonard has been a sub-66-percent passer in his past two games and Ohio State’s pass defense is significantly higher rated than either UGA or Penn State in both yards allowed and efficiency.

Leonard is averaging 6.51 yards per attempt, has just three passing touchdowns and three picks in the College Football Playoffs. As I said earlier, the opponents get better as you get into the 12-team field, but those numbers are not exactly great. Forcing Notre Dame to try and win the game via the pass is ideal for the Buckeyes because this team is built to win a fight in a phone booth rather than an aerial battle.

Sack the groceries

Notre Dame has been an offensive line machine through the years but even over the course of the season, this has not been the best pass protection group that has played in South Bend (Ind.).

Couple in injury concerns and the Irish could be in trouble with a mismatch line, a quarterback who will try and prolong plays and an Ohio State defensive line that has tasted blood in the water and wants more.

The Buckeyes have 16 sacks over the past three games and players like Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are unstoppable right now. You may get them for a couple of plays or series, you may even hold them (we know it won’t get called, we have seen this movie before), but they will eventually break through and when they do, it is in bunches.

Not going to set up a number because Notre Dame really doesn’t hold on to the ball too long but even with that, the Irish have given up 23 sacks in 15 games.

This game will present the challenge of getting pressure without over pursuing and allowing Leonard to start running as he averages 5.2 YPC as a runner.

Spy Games

If Notre Dame isn’t really a great passing team and you are going to have to keep guys in the box to muddy up the run, why not have one as a spy. JT Tuimoloau drew that assignment in the Tennessee game, Sonny Styles had more of a spy role against Quinn Ewers and Texas.

Ohio State cannot get away with putting a defensive end in to go after the mobile quarterback, but there is a very good chance that Leonard may be Notre Dame’s most important offensive weapon in this game and the RPO threat of either run/pass or handoff/tuck will keep the Buckeyes on their toes.

Somehow NIU kept Leonard to just 1.5 YPC on 11 carries for 16 yards in week two of the season. With trouble up front on the offensive line and an Ohio State defense that is in riot mode, Jim Knowles will have to stay diligent with his defensive team that the QB run threat is real from most downs and distances, especially if that is all ND has, much like how Tennessee was for large parts of Ohio State’s first-round game.

Hold Notre Dame to 20 points or less

Finally, I throw a real number out there.

I am processing things at the same time that you are and didn’t come into writing this piece with any preconceived notions of what I was going to write.

Notre Dame is averaging 25.7 PPG in the College Football Playoffs. Ohio State is allowing just 17.3 PPG over its last three games in the playoffs as well.

If I average those two numbers, I get 21.5 points, and I am just going to round that down a little bit to get to my 20, just wanting to show my work.

Has Notre Dame looked like it was going to explode for any amount of points over the course of the playoffs? We get so many data points with this extended season that it is easy to weight September play equally with January play.

How is the team playing right now? What is working and what isn’t working?

If I were to write a scouting report of Ohio State off of the loss to Michigan, it would be unrecognizable to what we are seeing right now. If I wrote one for Notre Dame coming off of its game with USC, I think the same could be said.

I still believe that Ohio State is going to score more points than expected, so even if I am off on this number here, it shouldn’t matter if the game goes according to the way I am projecting it.

But Ohio State’s defense has really carried this team and as long as the team plays disciplined football, Notre Dame is not only going to need to play a “high A” type of game, it is going to need some help from the Buckeyes.

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