Three Shots – The National Championship

My version of bold predictions have been bold.

Bold and wrong.

Okay, mostly wrong.

I don’t have anyone to run them by and see if I am being too mild or too wild in my picks, so I try and make sure that I am punching up in terms of the level of each pick that I have made.

I have hit a couple of free throws (not always an easy thing) and even drained a couple of three-pointers (even more difficult), but the overall score is much lower than I ever would have expected and this has been a thing for a good part of the season.

Now with just one game left, do I make my boldest predictions or do I try and stuff the stat sheet with my weakest picks?

You are going to have to read on and find out.

last time out

Free Throw: Two different Buckeyes score at least one rushing touchdown

Status: Miss

I really felt that of all the picks that I have recently made, this one was going to be an easy one.

Well, I was wrong.

This is not a Texas issue, the Horns proved to be a solid defense and I was impressed with a lot that I saw there. I just felt that Ohio State would have more opportunities in the red zone, leading to either both running backs having a score or Will Howard having a score.

How close did I come to having this one happen? “One-legged Willie” got me when he leaned too far forward and got over his center of gravity and fell to the turf on what would have been a walk-in touchdown.

Fortunately, I don’t have any money on these picks that I make here, it is just pride.

I am not proud of many of my picks, but this one should have happened.

Three Pointer: Will Howard throws for 300 yards and at least one touchdown

Status: Miss

Touchdown pass? Check.

300 yards? So close, so close.

Howard came in at 289 yards and honestly, there was no reason to throw on the final drive after the Downs interception, so I can’t even be mad about that one.

Penalties earlier in the game killed offensive drives and my chances of having this one come home.

Howard still had a decent game throwing the ball, all things considered with Texas getting home a couple of times on him, a knot on his non-throwing hand and so much more.

I am just continuing my trend of being “close” but not quite getting home. Much like the non-playoff pass rush for the Buckeyes.

Maybe I will put it all together for the championship game.

Full Court: Ohio State records five sacks, recovers a turnover and scores on defense (or special teams)

Status: Miss

Not on my picks but coming so very close on all of them.

What should have been the most difficult part on this one? The defensive/ST touchdown. Well, we got that with Jack Sawyer’s rumble down the Ohio State sideline to put the Buckeyes up by two scores.

Then it would have been recovering a turnover. Texas played a dangerous game, putting the ball on the ground several times but coming up with their own miscues. Ohio State has not really been a turnover (gained) machine in the run of the CFP, just imagine if they were.

The five sacks seemed like it could have been the easiest component here, and Ohio State had four sacks… which still is very much in line with the number of sacks that Ohio State is averaging in the CFP, but they couldn’t get just one more?

Many of my full court shots not only miss the rim and the backboard, but generally are thrown out of the gym. This was one where I hit iron and the ball looked it like might kick in, only to fall off the rim and out-of-bounds.

Current Score: 13

the national championship game

free throw

Ohio State scores at least four touchdowns (by any variety)

So you are saying Ohio State scores 28 points? Why not just spell it out like that?

It just has a better ring to it and if you look at Notre Dame’s schedule, the Irish have allowed four or more touchdowns in a game only once, the USC game.

Teams have come close, Penn State scored 24, as did Louisville. But getting to that 28-point mark seems to be a rare thing.

Granted, we are talking about a team operating with Rylie Mills now (that has been over the last several weeks) on defense and has some real issues on the offensive line with a tackle out and a guard being questionable.

Ohio State is scoring just shy of 36 points per game, so 28 points should be a lay up, or a free throw. Right?

three pointer

Jeremiah Smith has at least five receptions, 70 receiving yards and a touchdown (any variety)

On the surface, that doesn’t sound like a three-pointer, he has hit all of these metrics in seven games. But at no point was he coming off of a game like the Texas game where he was taken out of the offensive flow the way that he was.

Notre Dame is plenty aware of who Smith is and what he can do. Notre Dame also has seen the tape of what Texas was able to do. Now, Notre Dame runs a different type of defense and obviously has its own pieces to try and flank the talented freshman.

I just think that Ohio State finds some different ways to get the ball to Smith, making sure that he is a part of the offense in order to stress Notre Dame and force the Irish to make some very difficult and high-risk decisions.

full court

Ohio State will hold ND to 243 yards of total offense or fewer

Really random number, right?

Wrong.

This is the low water mark for the Irish this season, 244 yards against Georgia. We know that total yardage and total points aren’t always indicative of the same thing.

But it really is hard to win if you can’t move the ball unless the opposing team is handing you the ball deep in their own territory.

The Irish were held sub-300 yards of total offense in three games this season, losing one (NIU) nearly losing one (Louisville) and then going against a team with no offense at that moment (UGA).

Ohio State has the number one total defense in the nation, allowing just 251.1 yards per game, 33 yards better than No. 4 Northern Illinois.

In such a high leverage game, it seems unlikely that Notre Dame is going to lay an egg, but is Ohio State’s defense even better than what we have been saying for a good part of the season?

Time will tell.

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