Michigan Monday: Out On Allege

Michigan begins its much-anticipated defense of the football team’s 2023 national title this week as a team full of university lawyers begins putting together what they hope will be an effective and convincing response to the NCAA that no wins or seasons should be vacated as a consequence of the wrongdoings alleged in their recent Notice of Allegations involving the years-long improper on-site scouting and sign-stealing operation within the football program.

The football team also begins its own type of national-title defense this weekend, but theirs takes place on an actual field.

The NCAA process will play out on its own timeline, but thankfully there will be some football along the way while we wait. As such, Michigan Monday is back for its 22nd year of covering the Wolverines in the only way we know how — with unflinching honesty and boisterous humility.

This year’s edition of the Wolverine football team will look differently than last year’s team, but once you win a national title, the expectations remain the same. And now with a 12-team playoff, the possibility will be there even with a couple of losses.

If Michigan wants to make the College Football Playoffs this year, however, they’ll likely have to win at least one game against Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State. They are currently underdogs in all three games. If they don’t get a win against those three, they may not have any major wins that sway the playoff committee.

A three-loss team can make the playoffs, but not if they don’t have any big-time wins. Maybe USC can be that win for Michigan, but if the Trojans are a quality win, it may be because they’ve gone 10-2 and are ranked ahead of the Wolverines anyway. It becomes a bit of a catch-22. If Michigan is ranked ahead of USC, the win loses its luster.

But as with any year, just win The Game and the rest will sort itself out.

At the time of this writing, Michigan is on a three-game winning streak over Ohio State. All three games were separated by one score late into the fourth quarter, and Michigan found a way to win each time. This creates an expectation on both teams, and should this year’s game feature another close game in the fourth quarter, the chatter will begin. The tingling of the nerves might start firing.

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has told his team to leave no doubt this year. Don’t let any game come down to a misstep or a missed tackle. Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore will have similar messages, but he will have very little of the pressure.

Michigan is playing with house money this year, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t like like another big pay day. While a national championship is unlikely this season, there is still a winning streak over Ohio State they’d like to keep extending.

If they can do that, then most folks up north would consider the season a rousing success.

When Michigan Is On Offense

The expectation is that redshirt sophomore Alex Orji will be the starting quarterback. He has one more collegiate pass attempt than most people reading this right now, and it came back in September of 2022.

The Michigan passing game will be limited this year, but the Wolverine offense people see in week two against Texas is not going to be the offense they see November 30 when Michigan comes to Columbus. Orji needs time. He’ll have it by November.

But he’ll also need help from his receivers, and they’re not going to be as equipped to do that as they were last year. Tight end Colston Loveland is back and will again be a third-down saving grace in the passing game.

Running back Donovan Edwards returns, which gives him a chance to prove that last year’s 4.2 yards per carry were an anomaly and that his 7.1 yards per carry in 2022 are more representative of his actual ability. Kalel Mullings is a physical backup. More of an upfront backup, actually. Freshman Jordan Marshall has people excited.

The offensive line will be good enough, but probably not great. Championships can be won with offensive lines that are merely good enough, however.

There is a lot to like about the potential of Michigan’s running game, but if there’s an inconsistent passing threat, then things aren’t going to be as easy as a lot of Wolverine folks are hoping/predicting/expecting.

You can have a one-dimensional offense, but you need to have the capability of employing a second dimension at any given time. The Wolverines had that last year with JJ McCarthy and receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. Do they have that this year? If you answer yes, you’re not answering truthfully. You’re just answering hopefully.

That doesn’t mean you won’t be proven correct though. We’re all going to learn a lot about Alex Orji over the next month.

When Michigan Is On Defense

The Wolverines are expected to have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten this season. Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant impact plays at the point of attack. There is no prologue. No build up. Just straight plot. And most of it is violence and gore. You don’t even get to learn about the teenagers and what they’re doing all the way out here at this empty cabin before the killings begin.

Defensive ends Derrick Moore and Josiah Stewart are going to be asked to play more than they did last year. How well can they hold up over the course of a game and season?

The depth on the defensive line has taken a hit. Will that slow down the rotation this year or will Michigan just try to fight through the growing pains? They need depth in November and beyond, but their starters will have to handle the bulk of the snaps against Texas. That fourth quarter could be interesting.

Replacing nickel back Mike Sainristil’s exact contribution is going to be difficult, but it’s also unnecessary given how great he was. If they can just get very good, they should be fine. It’s when Michigan gets not very good at nickel, that things have gone poorly.

Cornerback Will Johnson is arguably the best player at his position in college football. The guys opposite him are going to be busier than Amazon drivers, however.

Safety Rod Moore could make it back this season from an ACL tear but even if he does, you can’t expect him to be at his best. Captain Makari Paige returns but there are legitimate questions in the Michigan secondary.

The Special Teams

There’s no reason to suddenly expect Michigan’s special teams to start struggling. They play the field position game very well. Punter Tommy Doman returns, but there will be a new place-kicker.

College kickers being what they are, keep your expectations measured.

What Does It All Mean

It means that football is back and despite the disagreements and anger people may have towards each other thanks to ongoing events off the field, they can now have that same kind of volatility towards each other thanks to ongoing events on the field.

The games are here. It’s time for all fan bases to come together and yell at each other about actual football for a change.

It also means that Michigan is going to play an entire season with a very serious NCAA situation hanging over their heads. The good news for them is that they have operated pretty well under NCAA allegations. The bad news for them is that the constant NCAA allegations are indicative of a repeat violator.

But none of that is ever going to keep Mason Graham from throwing a guard into a running back. Or keep Alex Orji from picking up a first down on a 12-yard scramble.

The games are still won on the field. The players have enough to worry about. The NCAA is never going to be part of their thought process.

Everybody above them, however, will be thinking about it. A lot.

And should Michigan start the season with losses to Texas and USC, don’t be surprised if some conciliation starts to manifest itself inside the walls of the decision makers up in Ann Arbor.

In other words, those who stayed may have to negotiate.

The Road To The Game

Aug. 31 – Fresno State
Sept. 7 – Texas
Sept. 14 – Arkansas State
Sept. 21 – USC
Sept. 28 – Minnesota
Oct. 5 – at Washington
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – at Illinois
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State