Michigan moved to 2-1 on Saturday with a never-in-doubt-but-overall-unimpressive 28-18 win over an undefeated Arkansas State team that gave up 31 points to Central Arkansas two weeks earlier.
Michigan led 28-3 with six minutes left in the game, so they were never going to lose this game. But if they continue to play this way in other games, the losses will mount. The Wolverines may have gotten back in the win column, but things don’t actually look any better. In fact, the way the offense looks right now, there may not be a “better” to be found, only different versions of bad.
Even after just three games, it feels like we already know everything there is to know about this team. That’s not a good place to be for a program that had playoff aspirations this season. Teams are supposed to improve over the course of the season, but that also requires having more potential than anything we’ve seen from Michigan’s offense this season. Where are the reinforcements? Where are the possibilities?
Defensively, the images of the Texas loss are not going to fade away any time soon. The Wolverines won’t be playing the Longhorns again this season, but good offenses are going to find holes in this defense. Especially if Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale keeps making them.
Saturday’s game against USC is going to be a statement game for either the Trojans or the Wolverines. If Michigan can protect their home turf, maybe there is a way to slog through some wins with defense, the running game, and dumb luck. If USC wins, it’s probably going to be open season on the Wolverines.
And nobody in the Big Ten is gonna feel bad about it.
When Michigan Was On Offense
Let’s start with the good news first in case we run out of ink talking about the bad news.
The Wolverines rushed for 301 yards on 44 carries, led by Kalel Mullings’ 153 yards on 15 carries. He had two rushes of 30 yards and another of 38 yards. He has been Michigan’s best player this season.
This was also the quickest and most aggressive Donovan Edwards has looked, but at the end of the day, he still just finished with a 4.8 yard-per-carry average. He rushed for 82 yards on 17 carries and had a long rush of just nine yards.
Both players have exactly 36 carries on the season. Mullings has rushed for 270 yards (7.5 ypc), while Edwards has managed 150 (4.2 ypc).
Edwards has a long carry of just 12 yards this season. It is his only rush of 10+ yards so far this year. There are 10 quarterbacks in the Big Ten with more 10-yard rushes than Edwards, including Michigan’s Alex Orji, who has four 10-yard rushes in just 10 attempts.
This is nothing new for Edwards but it continues to make life more difficult for an offense that needs to find chunks of yards wherever they might be.
The offensive line continues to be an up-and-down affair. There is still a rotation at center as Sherrone Moore and offensive line coach Grant Newsome try to find their five best players. Right tackle Evan Link struggled at times once again. The Wolverines ran a lot of successful jumbo sets with Andrew Gentry as a six offensive lineman. This was a positive move for the running game and will no doubt continue.
Six offensive linemen may not be enough. Since nearly every throw to a wide receiver is wasted, why not just run seven offensive linemen out there with two tight ends and a tailback and try to throw from that?
That’s only partly a joke, and much less a joke than the Michigan passing game right now.
Starter Davis Warren completed 11-of-14 passes for 122 yards. He was sacked twice. All three incompletions were interceptions, and not of the “acceptable” variety.
Warren’s first interception was just thrown up for grabs while falling backwards. Another interception was simply overthrown. He was ultimately benched for Alex Orji who completed 2-of-4 passes for 12 yards and a touchdown.
Orji’s next completion beyond the line of scrimmage will be the first of his career. He was long on a deep shot to Fredrick Moore who was open by five yards or so. It was the first time Orji’s actually been able to stretch his arm, so it’s no surprise they didn’t connect.
He’ll have more opportunities to attack a defense downfield on Saturday when USC comes to town. Head coach Sherrone Moore announced on Monday that Orji would get the start.
Moore and quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell are going to have to design a plan that fits Orji, but they also must rebuild the confidence that they have taken from him over the last month by not letting him throw the ball.
But the passing game is far from just a quarterback problem. The Michigan wide receivers are averaging nine yards per catch this season, and that’s mostly due to a pair of 22-yard blips against Texas from CJ Charleston and Peyton O’Leary.
The Wolverine wide receivers have been targeted 40 times this season and produced just 188 yards. That’s just 4.3 yards per target. That’s below average for a rushing attack. Ohio State running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have carried the ball 40 times and produced 294 yards.
Only seven of the 21 receptions by Michigan receivers have gone for at least 10 yards. Four of the 21 receptions have gone for no gain or a loss. Only three have gone for more than 20 yards.
Five different receivers have started so far this year for the Wolverines.
Outside of the Michigan tight ends, there is really nobody to help the quarterbacks, and the quarterbacks can’t do anything to raise the play of their receivers.
And that’s when the quarterback has time to throw. Donovan Edwards had some pass protection issues, for instance. And there may be more time to throw if you don’t have the quarterback faking a play-action to nobody. I don’t think the defense is buying that one.
All-American tight end Colston Loveland appeared to injury his shoulder in the first half. He left the game, but returned in the third quarter. He caught one pass and took himself out of the game again after being tackled. Moore did not provide an update on Monday of Loveland’s status, but TE2 Marlin Klein played well, catching three passes for 43 yards.
The Wolverines will always have tight ends, but they need more. A lot more.
When Michigan Was On Defense
Michigan is currently trying to build its depth on the defensive line but the drop off from the first unit to the second unit might be too dramatic to rely on them in key times.
Defensive tackle Ike Iwunnah is one example of this. He’s a fourth-year junior and this season is the first time he’s ever actually played. It’s a great story but not an ideal situation for a defense that showed against Texas how they can wear down over the course of a drive and a game.
Michigan held Arkansas State to 58 yards rushing on 25 attempts. All but 12 of those yards came in the fourth quarter.
The Wolverine run defense has been very good-to-excellent this season, save for a few plays here and there against Texas. The pass defense, however, continues to be an area of concern.
One week after Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers completely avoided All-American cornerback Will Johnson, Arkansas State went after him repeatedly and successfully. Not for big gains, but for first downs. To this point, we have not seen the Will Johnson we’ve been expecting.
The pass rush wasn’t very disruptive. Defensive ends Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore were quiet. If the Wolverines can’t get a pass rush from the front four, the secondary isn’t good enough to withstand that kind of offensive opportunity.
The Arkansas State quarterbacks completed 26-of-44 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Safety Makari Paige came away with the only interception, but it happened in the end zone, so it eliminated a key scoring opportunity for the Red Wolves.
The Arkansas State offense made it inside the Michigan 25-yard line six times in this game. Only three of those trips turned into points. They had three empty possessions in scoring territory in what turned out to be a 10-point loss.
The Michigan Special Teams
Punter Tommy Doman continues to be less than stellar. He averaged 39 yards on his three punts, putting just one kick inside the 20-yard line. The return game did nothing.
Kicker Dominic Zvada did not attempt any field goals but we all know he would have made them if he had.
Arkansas State’s average starting field position was their own 34-yard line, compared to the 23-yard line for Michigan.
What Does It All Mean?
It means that Michigan is about to start running the offense they deemed before the season to not be their best chance at winning. Sherrone Moore has been reticent to play Alex Orji this season but now he’s going to have to be all-in on the quarterback he’s been out on for a while now.
But at least this move will finally give Michigan their offensive identity. They’re going to run the ball as much as they can and then try to pop some play-actions for big gains. This is an offensive approach that an offensive line can get behind, but they still have to be able to operate it.
Defenses will be able to match the numbers until Orji makes them pay for having the safeties seven yards from the line of scrimmage like Arkansas State’s safeties were.
Right now, Michigan’s quarterback situation might be worse than it was with Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet in 2008. It’s going to take something unforeseen — or Jack Tuttle — to lift them out of a hole that they should have never been in.
It also means that this is not Davis Warren’s fault. A walk-on quarterback should never be expected to rise to a starter, regardless of whether or not he’s been put on scholarship.
Sherrone Moore will receiver his fair share of blame, but this offense wouldn’t be much better if Jim Harbaugh was still at Michigan. He’s not going to make these quarterbacks markedly better, and he was too busy exploring his own transfer portal last winter to scout some possible quarterback additions that could have helped mitigate this current mess.
Even if he had returned, the questions would remain the same, and the answers would still be less than ideal. The horizon has NCAA clouds looming, which is going to make a quick fix impossible.
A loss to Lincoln Riley and USC this week is going to get the “Hey, let’s self-impose a postseason ban” talk going. A win, however, could be the kind of fool’s gold that convinces people that the problems aren’t really that bad if you just look closely at them.
Unfortunately for Michigan, former USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch is long gone. And after what Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was able to do to Wink Martindale two weekends ago, the Michigan offense probably won’t be the only issue for the Wolverines on Saturday.
The Road To The Game
Aug. 31 – Michigan 30 – Fresno State 10 (1-0)
Sept. 7 – Texas 31 – Michigan 12 (1-1)
Sept. 14 – Michigan 28 – Arkansas State 18 (2-1)
Sept. 21 – USC
Sept. 28 – Minnesota
Oct. 5 – at Washington
Oct. 12 – OPEN
Oct. 19 – at Illinois
Oct. 26 – Michigan State
Nov. 2 – Oregon
Nov. 9 – at Indiana
Nov. 16 – OPEN
Nov. 23 – Northwestern
Nov. 30 – at Ohio State
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