Three Shots: Iowa

Few people get rich in the prediction business.

Sure, there are people who can do it in the market, or with sports (at maybe a 63-percent clip), and don’t forget about your traveling circus fortune tellers.

But, making three picks about Ohio State, with a degree of difficulty to make it worthwhile… well, it has been a struggle.

I put up another point this past weekend, to get me up to two points to three games. That is a failing score. Or maybe I am just setting myself up for failure.

That is something that we will have to look at after the season is over, to decide how to make this piece a little more ‘offensive minded’ in terms of scoring.

But now we turn our attention to the Iowa game and in case you are new to the piece, I am making three picks, one of them similar to a free throw, then a three-pointer and then a full court shot.

You would think that I can nail my free throw, have a fighting chance at my three-pointer, and maybe need a miracle for a full court shot.

Let’s give it another go. But first a look back at least week’s picks.

last week

Free Throw – Will Howard will score a rushing touchdown

Status: Hit

It was Ohio State’s last score of the game and I was worried about getting shut out again. But Howard took in a six-yard run late in the third quarter to get the Buckeyes up to 38 points and effectively end the night for many of Ohio State’s starters.

Three Pointer – Ohio State will have a running back go for at least 175 yards and a score

Status: Miss

Yeah, this one was not even close… but I also knew that I was taking a chance here. Neither of Ohio State’s main backs, TreVeyon Henderson nor Quinshon Judkins found the end zone in this game. And the Buckeyes only totaled 185 rushing yards in the game.

This one felt like a big reach when I made the pick initially. In retrospect, saying 100 yards and a score would have been more in line with a three-pointer, but I would have missed it at that level as well with no back coming in at better than 69 yards.

Full Court – Ohio State will hold Aidan Chiles to less than 70 net yards passing

Status: Miss

Chiles has been a bit of a turnover machine and I saw a scenario where Chiles has to press, throw a couple of picks and get a quick hook to keep from piling on the psyche of a young player.

Chiles did eventually get replaced but that was more of a case of the game being over and just getting to the next one, but not before throwing for 167 yards, well above the number that I had set.

Current Score: 2

free throw

Ohio State will score no less than two rushing touchdowns

I really considered saying just one, due to the fact that Iowa has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. But, if I am not pressing the limits, am I really having fun writing this piece and are you enjoying it?

Iowa only gave up seven rushing touchdowns all season in 2023, so to predict that Ohio State is going to rush for at least two seems to have some weight to it.

With Judkins and Henderson both out of the end zone last week, you know each are really wanting to get back into the end zone as there has to be a friendly competition between the two backs.

Three Pointer

Ohio State will score at least 14 points in the first quarter

Believe it or not, but the Buckeyes have not hit 14 points in the first quarter in three of their four games. They only hit this mark against Western Michigan.

There is more significance since Iowa has allowed just 17 first quarter points through the entire season to date.

So, Ohio State has been getting off to slow starts and Iowa just doesn’t allow much in the first 15-minutes. It feels like something has got to give here for the Buckeyes.

Full court

Either Henderson or Judkins will outrush Kaleb Johnson

Is this a full-court shot? Is it a three-pointer? I guess that could be up for debate, but we are also talking about a player in Johnson that is rushing for almost 178 yards per game.

The biggest thing that will hurt the Buckeyes on this one is having two “top backs” and the fact that Henderson has had 13 combined carries in the last eight quarters and the numbers are not much higher for Judkins.

For this to hit, Ohio State is going to need a couple of long runs and completely shut down Johnson for the Hawkeyes. I expect the Buckeyes to have some success on the defensive side, but I just am not sure that either back will get enough carries for this one to land.

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