Staff Picks: Buckeyes Look to Break the Streak Against Michigan

Ohio State enters Saturday’s matchup with Michigan a near 20-point favorite as the Buckeyes look to end a three-game losing streak to their bitter rival. Will Ohio State break the streak and punch its ticket to Indianapolis for a rematch with top-ranked Oregon?

Ross Fulton

Michigan has improved in recent weeks, improving their SP+ rating for the first time all season (up to 32). Even so, Michigan basically remains a version of Iowa, with a solid defense and an offense that lacks explosiveness.

The key for Ohio State is handling the one area where Michigan has an advantage, the defensive line. Look for Chip Kelly to come out getting the football outside off RPO and quick game on early downs to open up the run game. Kelly will likely seek to exploit the issues that have troubled Wink Martindale’s defense this year—formation into boundary, motion and shifts, and same side run game to get Michigan linebackers in the wrong game.

Defensively will be a heavy Arvell Reese game as Michigan will use a lot of 21 and 12 personnel. From that 4-3 look Jim Knowles will likely mix cover 1 with some cover 2 and cover 4, looking to pressure Davis Warren into backpedaling and sailing throws. Michigan will likely empty the playbook with flea flickers and halfback passes, but OSU’s DTs should be able to handle the Wolverines’ base inside run game, where the Michigan offensive line struggles with combination blocks.

Ohio State 32 Michigan 12

Tony Gerdeman

The team that runs the ball best in this game wins, unless neither team can run it. I’m not expecting much success from either squad on the ground, but the team that hits the home run will likely outgain the other. Maybe the Buckeyes can get out to a lead and milk things and win the rushing battle that way. The easier way to score, however, will be to throw the ball. Michigan’s secondary has five guys who would be battling to be backups in the Ohio State defense. If Will Howard has time to throw, the Wolverines are going to be in or a long day. Their biggest hope for an upset is to get to Howard early and often. Force turnovers. Get short fields. The Michigan offense won’t be able to drive 75 yards repeatedly. They’ll need some 45-yard drives as well. 

Michigan’s offense will feature trick plays, so expect a flea flicker and expect a halfback pass. These are all things that Michigan does just to find 25 easy yards for their offense. Alex Orji didn’t play last week. Expect him to play this week. The Wolverine passing game hasn’t stretched the field all season long. They have to take a couple of shots in this one, provided their pass protection holds up. The Buckeyes are going to get after Davis Warren just like they did Kurtis Rourke. I’m going somewhat conservative with this score because that’s just the nature of the way things have gone this season. It should still be a suffocating performance for the Buckeyes, however. 

Ohio State 31 Michigan 13

Marc Givler

Despite the season Michigan is having a 20-point spread just feels a little high to me. It has been a bit of a disaster in Ann Arbor this fall, but an upset win over the Buckeyes would make the season for that team and fan base.

All of the pressure is on Ohio State here. The Buckeyes need to break this streak, get back to the Big Ten championship game and are still playing for a bye and top overall seed in the playoff.

That being said, I think the Buckeyes have the right combination of key players who have suffered three straight losses and have that hunger to break the losing streak and key players who are new to this game and don’t have that mental hurdle to overcome. Too much of one or the other would not be advantageous and I think the right combination of that exists here.

This Buckeye team also seems mentally tougher than the some other recent versions who have come up short in this game. Buckeyes break the streak in a game that might be a little closer for a while than most expect.

Ohio State 31 Michigan 16

Chip Minnich

Ohio State has three years of frustration pent up, and I am genuinely curious if Chip Kelly is going to serve not only as the offensive coordinator, but making sure that Ryan Day keeps his emotions in check during the course of the game.  The statistic of whichever team wins the rushing battle weighs heavily upon me, and I also believe that Michigan’s ineffective passing game is going to make it so much easier for Jim Knowles and the defensive staff to essentially make the Wolverines truly one dimensional. 

As long as Ohio State’s front seven is able to keep Michigan from being able to sustain drives, this game could get out of hand, with the Wolverines unable to keep pace with the Ohio State offensive attack.  The weather forecast is calling for it to be frigid, but I am optimistic that the cold weather will not impact the Ohio State passing game.  I am probably going too high with the score here, but I have it…

Ohio State 42 Michigan 17

Kevin Noon

Run the damn ball. Or pass it. Michigan is not going to score enough points either way.

Now that I have your attention.

Michigan fans have annoyingly reminded you about the last three years, told you how soft the Buckeyes are and how the tides have turned, and 40 years of pestilence are here.

That all changes this week.

Yes, I saw the video too, someone on the other side trying to say that ‘this edition of the Buckeyes are not all that good’. That person lives in the biggest of glass houses, or is it the glassest of big houses?

I have seen the trends, the team that runs the ball better wins this game every time over the course of the century. All Michigan can do is run the ball and even that has been hit-or-miss.

But Northwestern they will say. “We scored 50 points against them and Ohio State scored fewer”.

Ryan Day and Ohio State have three years of piss and vinegar built up and are not going to miss this opportunity.

The Michigan people will point out that Cade McNamara was able to secure the win over Ohio State. Say what you will, McNamara is a significantly better passer than Davis Warren.

And if Colston Loveland doesn’t play? While I feel that is unlikely, that would allow fans a chance to start making Indy reservations by halftime.

Ohio State will not be able to hang 100 in this game because there won’t be enough offensive possessions, but the Buckeyes will be more than up for the challenge, and maybe I am lowballing the outcome. 

Ohio State 35 Michigan 9

Tom Orr

This is a game Ohio State should win. Yes, there are ways that Michigan can keep it close, or even pull out a shocking upset, but the Buckeyes are far more talented and have far more to play for than the Wolverines. 

Whether Ohio State wins, and by how much, will come down to the battle between the OSU offensive line and Michigan’s defensive line. If the Buckeyes can run the ball at least a little bit – say, 3.5 or 4 yards per carry – and can also give Will Howard time in the pocket, this could be a runaway. If the Wolverines can generate consistent pressure and bog down the OSU run game enough to keep the offense off-schedule, then things could get a little tense inside the Horseshoe. 

Michigan has taken some steps in the general direction of competence on offense recently, but with TE Colston Loveland banged up and his status for the game unclear, they’re not likely to get to 20 points without a defensive or special team score, or several OSU turnovers to hand them short fields.

Ohio State 31 Michigan 10